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Author of the acclaimed work Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory, Kent Osband argues that uncertainty is central rather than marginal to finance. Markets don't trade mainly on changes in risk. They trade on changes in beliefs about risk, and in the process, markets unite, stretch, and occasionally defy beliefs. Recognizing this truth would make a world of difference in investing. Belittling uncertainty has created a rift between financial theory and practice and within finance theory itself, misguiding regulation and stoking huge financial imbalances.

Sparking a...

Run Time: 36.36 minutes Kent Osband, Founder of RiskTick LLC, a consultancy tracking financial turbulence philosophizes that like the atmosphere or the seas, financial markets sometimes get so stirred up that it seems like angry spirits must be stirring them. In fact, any sufficiently abrupt change in beliefs -- including from perfectly rational learning -- is bound to trigger major uncertainty, disagreement and market turbulence:

- Turbulence limits predictability and can make perfectly rational investors look foolish.
- Turbulence has merits too: without it we might...