Every day we hear about terrorism, war and apocalypse. But the real risk of these events happening to us is about as likely as winning the lottery. Dan Gardner explains our risk perception through our brain's two simultaneous responses to risk - the ancient 'fight or flight' instinct and the rational, considered response.
Every day we hear about terrorism, war and apocalypse. But the real risk of these events happening to us is about as likely as winning the lottery. Da...
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. This book offers practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. This book offers pra...
A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." --Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only...
A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision ma...
