Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

ISBN-13: 9781847947154 / Angielski / Miękka / 2016 / 352 str.

Dan Gardner

Opis

What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. This book offers practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.

Recenzje

The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone. Economist

O autorze

Philip Tetlock is Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of several books on politics and psychology, including Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics and the award-winning Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Dan Gardner is a journalist, author and lecturer. He is the best-selling author of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway and Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, which was published in 11 countries and 7 languages. He lives in Ottawa, Canada.