Short Cuts to Better Decision Making. By explaining how intuiton works and analyzing the techniques that people use to make good decisions - whether it's in personnel selection or heart surgery - the author will show you why gut thinking can change your world.

At the beginning of the 20th century, the father of modern science fiction, H.G. Wells, predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. Yet, a century on, most of us, from television weather forecasters to the American President, seem to have no idea of how to reason about uncertainties. Accordingly, a number of books and popular books have marshalled a long roster of cognitive illusions as evidence of humans' fundamental irrationality.

This is a fascinating, practical guide to making better decisions with our money, health and personal lives from Gerd Gigerenzer, the author of Reckoning with Risk. Numbers don't lie - but they often mislead us. From health risks to financial decisions, we often find it hard to make decisions because the statistics have been presented to us by 'experts' who misinterpret the data themselves. Here Gerd Gigerenzer shows how we can all use simple rules to become better-informed, risk-savvy citizens. "Important, Gigerenzer draws valuable lessons...his clear explanations will be a great help to...