Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets, parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of non-random walk, there...

Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets, parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of non-random walk, there...