The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels Between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets

ISBN-13: 9780792377139 / Angielski / Twarda / 1999 / 294 str.

William S. Mallios

Opis

Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets, parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of non-random walk, there must be some explanation for the negative forecasting results. The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels Between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets examines this issue.

Spis treści

Preface. Introduction: A Variety of Betting Lines. Part I: Models, Moralities, and Misconceptions. 1. A New Information Age. 2. Data Generators. 3. Gambling, Speculation, and Investment. 4. Commentaries. Part II: Modeling Concepts. 1. Expectations: Gambling, Rational and Statistical. 2. Shocks: Deviations from Expectations. 3. Modeling Approaches. Part III: Football. 1. Modeling National Football League Games. Part IV: Basketball. 1. Modeling National Basketball Association Games. Part V: Baseball. 1. Evolution of a Ball and Stick Experiment. 2. Modeling Major League Baseball Games. Part VI: Selection of Athletes. 1. The Belarussian Connection. Part VII: Financial Markets. 1. On the Predictability of Short Term Currency Fluctuations. 2. Modeling Short Term Fluctuations of Common Stock Issues. Appendix. A.1. Time Series Analysis: Overview of Arma, Bilinear, and Higher Order Models. A.2. Multiple Time Series Equations. A.3. Quantification of Structural Effects in Regression Systems. Index. List of Figures.