Durchblick in einer Welt voller Unstatistiken§Trockenobst ist giftig, Fast Food macht depressiv, Choleragefahr nimmt rasant zu, Polen sind fleißiger als Deutsche: Mit solch dramatischen Meldungen auf höchst fragwürdiger Datenbasis lassen wir uns täglich nur allzu gern aufstören. Der Psychologe Gerd Gigerenzer, der Ökonom Thomas Bauer und der Statistiker Walter Krämer diagnostizieren uns eine Art Analphabetismus im Umgang mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten und Risiken und haben darauf mit der Ernennung der "Unstatistik des Monats" (www.unstatistik.de) reagiert. Anhand haarsträubender Beispiele...
Durchblick in einer Welt voller Unstatistiken§Trockenobst ist giftig, Fast Food macht depressiv, Choleragefahr nimmt rasant zu, Polen sind fleißiger...
This book tells how quantitative ideas of chance have transformed the natural and social sciences as well as everyday life over the past three centuries. A continuous narrative connects the earliest application of probability and statistics in gambling and insurance to the most recent forays into law, medicine, polling, and baseball. Separate chapters explore the theoretical and methodological impact on biology, physics, and psychology. In contrast to the literature on the mathematical development of probability and statistics, this book centers on how these technical innovations recreated...
This book tells how quantitative ideas of chance have transformed the natural and social sciences as well as everyday life over the past three centuri...
Originally published in 1987, this title is about theory construction in psychology. Where theories come from, as opposed to how they become established, was almost a no-man s land in the history and philosophy of science at the time. The authors argue that in the science of mind, theories are particularly likely to come from tools, and they are especially concerned with the emergence of the metaphor of the mind as an intuitive statistician.
In the first chapter, the authors discuss the rise of the inference revolution, which institutionalized those statistical tools that later...
Originally published in 1987, this title is about theory construction in psychology. Where theories come from, as opposed to how they become establ...
In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning.
This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to...
In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of ...
Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and social. Gerd Gigerenzer proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision-making out of an ethereal...
Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about ret...
How do people make decisions when time is limited, information unreliable, and the future uncertain? Based on the work of Nobel laureate Herbert Simon and with the help of colleagues around the world, the Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) Group at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin has developed a research program on simple heuristics, also known as fast and frugal heuristics. In the social sciences, heuristics have been believed to be generally inferior to complex methods for inference, or even irrational. Although this may be true in "small worlds" where everything...
How do people make decisions when time is limited, information unreliable, and the future uncertain? Based on the work of Nobel laureate Herbert Simon...
Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, this volume explores expertise as a relational concept. In order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the roles of political experts, scientific experts, medical experts, and legal experts.
Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, this vo...
Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal...
Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of vie...
