Massnahmen der Gesundheits- und Sozialpolitik, z. B. der Kosten dampfung im Gesundheitswesen, zielen oft auf eine Beeinflussung des Verhaltens der niedergelassenen Aerzte abo Mangels diffe renzierter Vorstellungen liber die komplexen Zusammenhange werden dabei Primitivannahmen getroffen, z. B. nur ein Einkommensin teresse des Arztes unterstellt oder plumpe Versuche direkter Kontrollen unternommen. Eine erfahrungswissenschaftliche Fundie rung solcher Massnahmen setzt im Gegensatz hierzu voraus: eine konsistente und liberprlifte Theorie arztlichen Verhaltens, welche es ermoglicht,...

1.1. Pre Ziminary remarks Input-output analysis is one of the most extensively used tools of economic science. It has been introduced by Leontief (1941) who assumed that inputs into a production process of a particular sector of economic activity is a constant fraction of the output of that process in physicaZ terms. National account statisticians, however, record the inputs and outputs of sectors of economic activity in money flows. If those flows were voZumes (evalu ated at constant prices, pertaining to a certain base year) they could represent the physical amounts Leontief dealt with....

In seminars and graduate level courses I have had several opportunities to discuss modeling and analysis of time series with economists and economic graduate students during the past several years. These experiences made me aware of a gap between what economic graduate students are taught about vector-valued time series and what is available in recent system literature. Wishing to fill or narrow the gap that I suspect is more widely spread than my personal experiences indicate, I have written these notes to augment and reor- ganize materials I have given in these courses and seminars. I have...

The lecture notes presented in these pages were originally developed for use in the Energy Management Training Program (EMTP), sponsored by the Office of Energy, U. S. Agency for International Development. This program, held at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and the Institute for Energy Research, State University of New York at Stony Brook, is designed to train mid-career and senior government officials in developing countries in the techniques of energy policy analysis and planning, and covers, in addition to the material presented here, more detailed case studies in resource...

Dieses Buch berichtet uber ein langfristiges Arbeitsprogramm des Sonderfor schungsbereichs 21 an der Universitat Bonn, namlich uber die Arbeit an dem Disaggregierten Bonner Prognosemodell. Dies Modell geht auf ein von der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft unterstutztes Forschungsvorha ben zuruck, an dem mehrere Institute mitgewirkt haben, insbesondere das DIW Berlin, das Rheinisch-Westfalische Institut fUr Wirtschaftsforschung in Essen und der Lehrstuhl Prof. Helmstadter in Munster. Ober erste Versionen dieses Mo dells liegen drei Veroffentlichungen vor: W. Frerichs, "Ein disaggregiertes...

We are concerned here with a service facility consisting of a large (- finite) number of servers in parallel. The service times for all servers are identical, but there is a preferential ordering of the servers. Each newly arriving customer enters the lowest ranked available server and remains there until his service is completed. It is assumed that customers arrive according to a Poisson process of rate A , that all servers have exponentially distributed service times with rate ~ and that a = A/~ is large compared with 1. Generally, we are concerned with the stochastic properties of the...