Aims and approach In order to chart the way for long-tenn policies in the field of public health, the Dutch government needs to have the best possible insight into potential future trends and the problems to which these could give rise. It was with a view to compiling a number of long-range studies that the independent Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios was set up in 1983. In 1988 this body appointed a board of experts to sUivey the future of Chronic Diseases. Three chronic diseases have been selected: diabetes mellitus, CNSLD (chronic non-specific lung disease) and rheumatoid...

The first STG report to embody scenarios on population aging, health and care appeared in 1985. This report describes developments since 1985, reviewing the current position and setting out updated scenarios.
The 1985 report set out three scenarios, in which the central focus was on the developing future pattern of demand for care by the elderly. The present report too sets out three scenarios, centring on the demand for care, in which account is taken of a variety of factors; it also details four strategic scenarios whose central focus is on the developing supply of care and which set...

The report Scenarios on Rheumatoid Arthritis 1990--2005 is the third specialized report of the Chronic Diseases Scenario Project. An exploration has been made of the likely trends in the number of patients, the number of severity of consequences and complications, the quality of life and the demands likely to be made on the health system as a result of rheumatoid arthritis up to the year 2005.
Rheumatoid arthritis is a growing problem. Key issues therefore include the need for expansion of health care facilities and health care innovations and the prospects to prevent the...

The future place of medicines in health care is both exciting and uncertain. With an aging population, an increasing number of chronic sick, a growing range of treatment options and a developing European market, the one certainty is that medication patterns will change radically over the next 15 years or so. How the future might look, in terms of quality, volume and cost of pharmacotherapy, is the subject of this report.
Four scenarios for the future are set out, all of which take account of already visible trends. Sobriety in sufficiency envisages rational and restrained...

Which developments can be expected to take place in the dental health of the Dutch population in the decades to come, and what are the influential factors? What effects might the changing supply of dental professionals, the additional substitution of responsibilities from dentists to dental hygienists and the possible reforms in health care insurance have on the nation's oral status? These are some of the central questions discussed in this report by the Scenario Committee and the research group. For this purpose, the Committee developed a computer simulation model of dental health care which...

This book is an edited and updated version of the report 'Arbeid, gezo- heid en welzijn in de toekomst; toekomstscenario's arbeid en gezondheid 1990-2010' commissioned by the Steering Committe on Future Health Scenarios and published by Bohn, Stafleu and Van Loghum, Houten/- Antwerp in 1991. The authors wish to express their grateful thanks for the constructive comments they received from many people during the writing of this book. The following persons, however, deserve to be mentioned by name: E.W. Bergsma M.A., Prof. F.J.H. van Dijk, Dr. C.L. Ekkers, Prof. F. Huygen, Dr. M.A.J. Kompier,...