A New Approach to Sound Statistical Reasoning

Inferential Models: Reasoning with Uncertainty introduces the authors recently developed approach to inference: the inferential model (IM) framework. This logical framework for exact probabilistic inference does not require the user to input prior information. The authors show how an IM produces meaningful prior-free probabilistic inference at a high level.

The book covers the foundational motivations for this new IM approach, the basic theory behind its calibration properties, a number of...

Stochastic Analysis for Gaussian Random Processes and Fields: With Applications presents Hilbert space methods to study deep analytic properties connecting probabilistic notions. In particular, it studies Gaussian random fields using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs).

The book begins with preliminary results on covariance and associated RKHS before introducing the Gaussian process and Gaussian random fields. The authors use chaos expansion to define the Skorokhod integral, which generalizes the Ito integral. They show how the Skorokhod integral is a...

Exact sampling, specifically coupling from the past (CFTP), allows users to sample exactly from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. During its nearly 20 years of existence, exact sampling has evolved into perfect simulation, which enables high-dimensional simulation from interacting distributions.

Perfect Simulation illustrates the application of perfect simulation ideas and algorithms to a wide range of problems. The book is one of the first to bring together research on simulation from statistics, physics, finance, computer science, and other areas into...

Absolute Risk: Methods and Applications in Clinical Management and Public Health provides theory and examples to demonstrate the importance of absolute risk in counseling patients, devising public health strategies, and clinical management. The book provides sufficient technical detail to allow statisticians, epidemiologists, and clinicians to build, test, and apply models of absolute risk.

• Provides theoretical basis for modeling absolute risk, including competing risks and cause-specific and cumulative incidence regression

...

Longitudinal studies often incur several problems that challenge standard statistical methods for data analysis. These problems include non-ignorable missing data in longitudinal measurements of one or more response variables, informative observation times of longitudinal data, and survival analysis with intermittently measured time-dependent covariates that are subject to measurement error and/or substantial biological variation. Joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data has emerged as a novel approach to handle these issues.

This book introduces the mathematical foundation of Bayesian statistics. It is well known that Bayesian inference is more accurate than the maximum likelihood method in many real-world problems: however, its mathematical foundations have been left unexplained. Recently, new research on Bayesian statistics uncovered the mathematical laws by which the behavior of Bayesian inference can be estimated and the advances of Bayes estimation have been clarified. This book introduces such mathematical foundations to students and researchers.

Multi-State Survival Models for Interval-Censored Data introduces methods to describe stochastic processes that consist of transitions between states over time. It is targeted at researchers in medical statistics, epidemiology, demography, and social statistics. One of the applications in the book is a three-state process for dementia and survival in the older population. This process is described by an illness-death model with a dementia-free state, a dementia state, and a dead state. Statistical modelling of a multi-state process can investigate potential associations...

Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses.

After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of...

This is the second edition of a monograph on generalized linear models with random effects that extends the classic work of McCullagh and Nelder. It has been thoroughly updated, with around 80 pages added, including new material on the extended likelihood approach that strengthens the theoretical basis of the methodology, new developments in variable selection and multiple testing, and new examples and applications. It includes an R package for all the methods and examples that supplement the book.