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Structured around independent modules, the text offers a systematic method of reasoning along with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.

Structured around independent modules, the text offers a systematic method of reasoning along with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.

Counterfactual reasoning is the process of evaluating conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., "What If " statements). These alternatives can be either past possibilities (e.g., "If the United States had not abolished the Iraqi army in 2003, then the Iraqi insurgency would have been significantly smaller in 2005") or future possibilities (e.g., "If Iran had nuclear weapons, then it would provide this technology to Hezbollah"). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis because they are implicit in all strategic assessments. For, any proposal...

Just as The Elements of Style provides a quick and authoritative reference for writers, The Rowman & Littlefield Handbook for Critical Thinking provides a quick and authoritative reference for issues regarding reasoning. The Handbook provides clear and succinct discussions of the following issues: - Issues germane to clarifying sentences: ambiguity, vagueness, and propositional attitudes - General discussions of descriptions, explanations, and arguments - Criteria for evaluating observational statements and testimony - Categorical syllogisms, including issues germane to both the Boolean and...