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This book considers the benefits of complexity, suggesting that economists should become a bit less certain in their policy conclusions. A broader range of models would include agent-based models, which use computational power to deal with specification of models that are far beyond analytic solution; and non-linear dynamic stochastic models, many of which are beyond analytic solution, but whose nature can be discovered by a combination of analytics and computer simulations.

To do science is to find patterns, and scientists are always looking for p- terns that they can use to structure their thinking about the world around them. Patterns are found in data, which is why science is inevitably a qu- titative study. But there is a difficulty in finding stable patterns in the data since many patterns are temporary phenomena that have occurred r- domly, and highly sophisticated empirical methods are necessary to dist- guish stable patterns from temporary or random patterns. When a scientist thinks he has found a stable pattern, he will generally try to capture that...

In some ways, the e?ect of achieving understanding is to reverse completely our initial attitude of mind. For everyone starts (as we have said) by being perplexed by some fact or other: for instance... the fact that the diagonal of a square is incommensurable with the side. Anyone who has not yet seen why the side and the diagonal have no common unit regards this as quite extra- dinary. But one ends up in the opposite frame of mind... for nothing would so much ?abbergast a mathematician as if the diagonal and side of a square were to become commensurable . Aristotele] This is the ?rst volume...

In some ways, the e?ect of achieving understanding is to reverse completely our initial attitude of mind. For everyone starts (as we have said) by being perplexed by some fact or other: for instance... the fact that the diagonal of a square is incommensurable with the side. Anyone who has not yet seen why the side and the diagonal have no common unit regards this as quite extra- dinary. But one ends up in the opposite frame of mind... for nothing would so much ?abbergast a mathematician as if the diagonal and side of a square were to become commensurable . Aristotele] This is the ?rst volume...