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Are We Safe Enough? Measuring and Assessing Aviation Security explains how standard risk analytic and cost-benefit analysis can be applied to aviation security in systematic and easy-to-understand steps. The book evaluates and puts into sensible context the risks associated with air travel, the risk appetite of airlines and regulators and the notion of acceptable risk. It does so by describing the effectiveness, risk reduction and cost of each layer of aviation security, from policing and intelligence to checkpoint passenger screening to arming pilots on the flight deck.

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Since 2001, the United States has created or reorganized more than two counterterrorism organizations for every apprehension it has made of Islamists apparently planning to commit terrorism within the country. Central to this massive enterprise is what the FBI frequently calls "ghost-chasing"-the efforts by police and intelligence agencies to follow up on over ten million tips. Less than one alarm in 10,000 fails to be false-the rest all point to ghosts. And the vast majority of the leads deemed to be productive have led to terrorist enterprises that are either trivial or at most...

Performance Bounds and Suboptimal Policies for Multi-Period Investment examines dynamic trading of a portfolio of assets in discrete periods over a finite time horizon, with arbitrary time-varying distribution of asset returns. The goal is to maximize the total expected revenue from the portfolio, while respecting constraints on the portfolio like a required terminal portfolio and leverage and risk limits. The revenue takes into account the gross cash generated in trades, transaction costs, and costs associated with the positions, such as fees for holding short positions. The model that is...