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Even experienced experts can be biased and overconfident. This book explains how to ensure experts provide reliable scientific advice.

Emphasizing the philosophy of uncertainty and the frailties of human psychology when people are confronted with risky situations, this book describes how to conduct a thorough environmental risk assessment. Technical methods are provided to help make assessments more objective and less prone to the biases of those involved in the assessment. Consideration is given to the way in which both subjective beliefs and technical analysis may be used to make better informed decisions.

This book reviews the latest risk-based techniques to protect national interests from invasive pests and pathogens before, at and within national borders.

Quantitative methods are needed in conservation biology more than ever as an increasing number of threatened species find their way onto international and national red lists. Objective evaluation of population decline and extinction probability are required for sound decision making. Yet, as our colleague Selina Heppell points out, population viability analysis and other forms of formal risk assessment are underused in policy formation because of data uncertainty and a lack of standardized methodologies and unambiguous criteria (i. e., rules of thumb ). Models used in conservation biology...