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The theory of Value at Risk (VaR), which quantifies the probability of large losses in financial transactions, won the Nobel Prize in economics for Robert Merton. As trading systems have become more complex, however, the dangers of very large losses have become more acute. The near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, based on the VaR theory, is perhaps the most spectacular example: it was not stable against large and sudden fluctuations in the financial markets. This collection of papers by leading researchers addresses the weaknesses of VaR and how it might be possible...

Here at last is a coherent, unintimidating introduction to the challen ging and fascinating landscape of Western philosophy. Written expressl y for "anyone who believes there are big questions out there, but does not know how to approach them," Think provides a sound framework for exploring the most basic themes of philosophy, and for understanding h ow major philosophers have tackled the questions that have pressed the mselves most forcefully on human consciousness.