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This book investigates the phenomenon of overbalancing through an analysis of Japan’s foreign policy during the interbellum. In the mid-1930s, Japan withdrew from a naval arms control framework that had restrained military buildup on both sides of the Pacific Ocean since the early 1920s. By doing so, Japan not only triggered a naval arms race with the United States that exhausted its economy, it also destroyed the last institutionalized structure regulating the relationship between the two Pacific powers. Japan and the United States became caught in a spiral of tensions that culminated with...

Why did Japanese policy makers decide to attack the United States while aware of their very limited chance of success in war? Historical facts indicate that the Japanese decision could be explained by the theoretical concept of preventive war: Japan decided to go to war in December 1941 in order to avoid having to fight a more costly war later. There are, however, apparent weaknesses in the concept of preventive war in explaining Japanese leaders way of thinking on the eve of the Pacific War. This book proposes a revised version of the concept of preventive war that better explains the...

Japan is moving toward a more independent security policy because it faces an entrapment-abandonment dilemma. Any attempt to prevent abandonment by the United States vis-a-vis China harms its national security by heightening the risk of entrapment in the Korean Peninsula, and vice versa. More autonomy is the only way to solve this dilemma.