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Statistics is more topical than ever. Numerous decisions depend on statistical considerations: just think of the Corona crisis or decisions about approving new drugs or other products. If researchers announce they have proved some fact using statistical tests, can we then always be sure that their claim is correct? How, and more importantly why, does statistics work? What can we expect from statistics and what not? Fact or Fluke? is not a textbook that explains statistical tests to the reader; instead, it discusses what comes before those tests: the philosophy behind the statistics. Should...

This book addresses the role of statistics and probability in the evaluation of forensic evidence, including both theoretical issues and applications in legal contexts. It discusses what evidence is and how it can be quantified, how it should be understood, and how it is applied (and, sometimes, misapplied). After laying out their philosophical position, the authors begin with a detailed study of the likelihood ratio. Following this grounding, they discuss applications of the likelihood ratio to forensic questions, in the abstract and in concrete cases. The analysis of DNA evidence in...