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Statistical learning theory is aimed at analyzing complex data with necessarily approximate models. This book is intended for an audience with a graduate background in probability theory and statistics. It will be useful to any reader wondering why it may be a good idea, to use as is often done in practice a notoriously "wrong'' (i.e. over-simplified) model to predict, estimate or classify. This point of view takes its roots in three fields: information theory, statistical mechanics, and PAC-Bayesian theorems. Results on the large deviations of trajectories of Markov chains with rare...

This is yet another indispensable volume for all probabilists and collectors of the Saint-Flour series, and is also of great interest for mathematical physicists. It contains two of the three lecture courses given at the 32nd Probability Summer School in Saint-Flour (July 7-24, 2002). Tsirelson's lectures introduce the notion of nonclassical noise produced by very nonlinear functions of many independent random variables, for instance singular stochastic flows or oriented percolation. Werner's contribution gives a survey of results on conformal invariance, scaling limits and properties of...

Levy processes, that is, processes in continuous time with stationary and independent increments, form a flexible class of models, which have been applied to the study of storage processes, insurance risk, queues, turbulence, laser cooling, and of course finance, where they include particularly important examples having "heavy tails." Their sample path behaviour poses a variety of challenging and fascinating problems, which are addressed in detail.

This volume contains two of the three lectures that were given at the 33rd Probability Summer School in Saint-Flour (July 6-23, 2003). Amir Dembo's course is devoted to recent studies of the fractal nature of random sets, focusing on some fine properties of the sample path of random walk and Brownian motion. In particular, the cover time for Markov chains, the dimension of discrete limsup random fractals, the multi-scale truncated second moment and the Ciesielski-Taylor identities are explored. Tadahisa Funaki's course reviews recent developments of the mathematical theory on stochastic...