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Imagine a disease affects 1 in 1,000 people. A test for it is 99% accurate. If you test positive, what are the chances you actually have the disease? Most people, including seasoned doctors, intuitively say 99%. The real answer is barely 9%. This massive cognitive failure costs lives and fortunes every day.The Base Rate Fallacy is our brain's tendency to ignore general statistical information in favor of specific, vivid details. We are biologically wired for narrative, not probability. When a jury hears an emotional witness, or an investor sees a flashy new tech startup, they completely...

Brought to you by Puffin. As soon as Pollyanna arrives in Beldingsville to live with her strict and dutiful maiden aunt, she begins to brighten up everybody's life. The 'glad game' she plays, of finding a silver lining in every cloud, transforms the sick, the lonely and the plain miserable - until one day something so terrible happens that even Pollyanna doesn't know how to feel glad about it. (c) Eleanor Porter 1994 (P) Penguin Audio 2020