Wind Energy: An Assessment of the Technical and Economic Potential a Case Study for the Federal Republic of Germany, Commissioned b

ISBN-13: 9783642887093 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 212 str.

L. Jarass; L. Hoffmann; A. Jarass

Opis

This study was commissioned by the International Energy Agency (lEA) accord- ing to Annex III of the "Implementing Agreement for a Program of Research and Development of Wind Energy Conversion Systems". The working title of the study was: "Integration of Wind Power into National Electricity Supply Sys- tems". Participants: - Federal Republic of Germany (40 070), represented by the Kernforschungsan- lage Jillich GmbH, - Japan (20 070), represented by The Japanese Delegation to DECD, - Netherlands (10 070), represented by The Stichting Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland, - Sweden (10070), represented by The National Swedish Board for Energy Source Development, - United States of America (20 070), represented by The Department of Energy. The operating agent was the Kernforschungsanlage Jillich, Projektleitung Energieforschung (Project No. ET 4085 A). The authors wish to thank the temporary co-workers on the project L. Griebl, R. Meyer and H. Renner (programming), J. Boase (preliminary translation of parts of the study), W. Dub and H. Pape made several helpful suggestions for the revision of the preliminary version of the report. The extensive services of E. List!, the project secretary, made a significant contribution to the carrying out of this research project. For providing extensive facilities in the computing centre and project rooms, and for handling the financial side of the project, the authors express their thanks to the University of Regensburg.

Spis treści

1 The Possible Position of Wind Power within the Future Energy Supply of the Federal Republic of Germany.- 1.1 Long-Term Development of Energy Demand.- 1.1.1 Total Energy Demand.- 1.1.2 Demand for Electricity.- 1.2 Long-Term Development of Energy Supply.- 1.2.1 Total Energy Supply.- 1.2.2 Supply of Electricity.- 1.3 Development of Electricity Costs.- 1.4 Wind Energy Potential and its Possible Utilization.- 2 Determinants of Wind Power Utilization.- 2.1 Meteorological Conditions.- 2.1.1 Wind as a Meteorological Phenomenon.- 2.1.2 Wind Potential.- 2.2 Criteria Governing the Choice of a Suitable Location for Wind Power Stations.- 2.3 Fundamental Questions of Wind Technology: Technical Installations, Integration into the Grid System.- 2.3.1 Technical Installations.- 2.3.2 Integration into the Existing Grid.- 2.4 The Economic Efficiency of Wind Power.- 2.4.1 Evaluation from the Private Point of View.- 2.4.2 Evaluation from the Social Point of View.- 2.4.3 Mode of Calculation.- 3 Research Goals of the Study.- 3.1 The Questions to be Discussed.- 3.2 Program of the Investigations.- 4 Wind Conditions in the Federal Republic of Germany.- 4.1 Wind Data.- 4.1.1 Data Material.- 4.1.2 Representativeness of Data Material.- 4.1.2.1 Height of Measurement.- 4.1.2.2 Temporal Resolution and Observation Period.- 4.1.2.3 Methods of Measurement.- 4.1.2.4 Applicability to Other Locations.- 4.1.2.5 Summary of the Representativeness.- 4.2 Evaluation of the Wind Data.- 4.2.1 Magnitude and Structure of Wind Speed.- 4.2.1.1 Considerations in Respect of Mean Values.- 4.2.1.2 Potential of Wind Power.- 4.2.1.3 Temporal Distribution of Wind Speed.- 4.2.2 Regularity of Wind Speed.- 4.2.2.1 Standard Deviation of Wind Speed.- 4.2.2.2 Detailed Structure of Lulls.- 4.2.2.3 Extreme Wind Velocities.- 4.2.3 Daily and Seasonal Variation of Wind Velocity.- 4.2.3.1 Daily Time-Evolution of Wind Velocity.- 4.2.3.2 Annual Time-Evolution of Wind Velocity.- 4.2.4 Correlation of Wind Speeds.- 4.2.4.1 Autocorrelation of Wind Speeds.- 4.2.4.2 Correlation of Wind Speeds Between Separate Observation Points.- 4.2.5 Wind Direction Investigations.- 4.2.6 Summary: Wind Situation in the Federal Republic of Germany.- 4.2.6.1 Mean Values.- 4.2.6.2 Daily and Seasonal Time Variation of Wind Speed and Energy Demand.- 4.2.6.3 Temporal Distribution of Wind Speed.- 4.2.6.4 Lulls.- 4.2.6.5 Correlation of Wind Speeds of Stations Lying at Some Distance from One Another.- 4.2.6.6 Extreme Wind Velocities.- 4.2.6.7 Wind Directions.- 4.2.6.8 Locations Favorable for Wind Power Generation.- 5 Conversion of Kinetic Energy (Wind Power) into Electrical Energy.- 5.1 Physical-Technical Basis.- 5.2 GROWIAN Technology: Reference Wind Power Plant.- 5.3 Wind Power Production.- 5.3.1 Quantities Bearing Central Influence upon the Energy Production of Wind Power Plants.- 5.3.2 GROWIAN’s Wind Power Production.- 5.4 The Use of Storage Facilities to Regularize Wind Power Production.- 5.5 Capacity Displacement Capability and Fuel Saving Effect of Wind Power Plants.- 5.6 Potential of Wind Energy.- 6 The Conventional Energy Supply System.- 6.1 Demand.- 6.2 Production Capacities.- 7. Swing: A Simulation Model for the Integration of Wind Power into the National Grid.- 7.1 Description of the Model.- 7.1.1 Objective.- 7.1.2 Input Quantities.- 7.1.2.1 Demand.- 7.1.2.2 Power Plant.- 7.1.2.3 Wind Power Plants.- 7.1.3 Simulation of Power Plant Standstills.- 7.1.3.1 Planned Standstills.- 7.1.3.2 Unplanned Standstills (Outages).- 7.1.4 Strategy of Employment of Power Plants.- 7.1.5 Integration of Wind Power.- 7.2 Graphical Representation of a Typical Simulation Run.- 7.3 Results of Model Runs.- 7.3.1 Basis of Model Runs.- 7.3.1.1 Reference Values of the Basic Parameters.- 7.3.1.2 Characteristic Values Which are Important for the Results.- 7.3.2 Alteration of Some Central Given Values of the System.- 7.3.3 Varyingly High Demand Figures, and Varyingly High Penetration Rates of Wind Power Plants.- 7.3.4 Integration of GROWIAN Wind Power Plants.- 7.3.5 Alteration of Several Central Parameter Values.- 7.3.6 Development of the Results Over Several Years.- 8 Fuel Saving through the Use of Wind Power Plants.- 8.1 Amount of Fuel Saved by Wind Power Plants.- 8.1.1 Amount of Wind Power Production.- 8.1.2 Additional Power Control.- 8.1.3 Non-Usable Wind Power.- 8.1.4 Fuel Saving with Growing Installed Wind Capacity Under Consideration of Standstills, Control Losses and Non-Usable Wind Energy.- 8.2 Nature of Fuel Saved.- 9 Displacement of Power Plant Capacity by Wind Power Plants (Capacity Credit).- 9.1 Assured Load Carrying Capability of Conventional Power Plants.- 9.1.1 Basis of the Procedure.- 9.1.2 Determining the Increment of the Assured Load Carrying Capability.- 9.1.3 Relation Between Installed Capacity and Standard Deviation of the Available Capacity of a Power Plant System.- 9.2 Increase in Assured Load Carrying Capability by Wind Power Plants.- 9.2.1 Basis of the Procedure.- 9.2.2 Determining the Increase in Assured Load Carrying Capability.- 9.3 Determining the Conventional Power Plant Capacity Displaced by Wind Power Plants (Capacity Credit).- 9.4 Raising the Capacity Displacement Capability of Wind Power Plants by Means of Storage Plants.- 10 Summary I: Fuel Saving and Displacement of Conventional Power Plant Capacity.- 10.1 Basis and Assumptions.- 10.2 Central Results.- 10.3 Variations in Fuel Saving and Displaced Conventional Power Plant Capacity from Year to Year.- 10.4 Influence of Annual Mean Wind Speed, Specific Generator Capacity and Rated Rotor Speed upon Fuel Saving and Displaced Conventional Power Plant Capacity.- 10.4.1 Varying Annual Mean Wind Speeds.- 10.4.2 Varying Specific Generator Capacities.- 10.4.3 Varying Rated Rotor Speeds.- 10.5 Type of Fuel Saved and Conventional Power Plant Capacity Displaced.- 10.6 Maximum Increase in Displaced Conventional Power Plant Capacity Due to Storage Plants.- 11 Evaluation of Fuel Saving and Displaced Conventional Power Plant Capacity.- 11.1 Basic Principles for the Evaluation of Wind Power Plants.- 11.1.1 Description of Evaluation Process.- 11.1.2 Central Evaluation Parameters and their Reference Values.- 11.1.2.1 Technical Parameters.- 11.1.2.2 Costs.- 11.1.2.3 Cost Increases.- 11.1.2.4 Financial Analysis Parameters.- 11.1.3 Sensitivity Analysis.- 11.2 Determining the Value of Wind Power Plants.- 11.2.1 Assumptions.- 11.2.2 Central Results.- 11.2.3 Annual Variation.- 11.2.4 Influence of Annual Mean Wind Speed and Specific Generator Capacity.- 11.2.5 Influence of the Type of Saved Fuel.- 11.2.6 Sensitivity Analysis.- 11.2.7 Raising the Value of Wind Power Plants with Storage Plants.- 12 Summary II: Break-Even-Costs of Investment and Maintenance for Wind Power Plants.- 12.1 Assumptions.- 12.2 Central Results.- 12.3 Annual Variation.- 12.4 Influence of Annual Mean Wind Speed and Specific Generator Capacity.- 12.5 Sensitivity Analysis.- 12.6 Wind Power Costs per Kilowatt Hour.- 12.7 Break-Even-Costs of Investment and Maintenance of GROWIAN.- 12.8 Break-Even-Costs of Investment and Maintenance for Storage Plants.- 13 Executive Summary.- 13.1 Objectives.- 13.2 Wind Situation in the Federal Republic of Germany.- 13.3 Optimization of Technical Parameters of Wind Turbines.- 13.4 The Simulation Model SWING.- 13.5 Fuel Savings and Displaced Conventional Capacity (Capacity Credit).- 13.6 Break-Even-Costs of Investment and Maintenance for Wind Power Plants.- 13.7 Role and Utilization of Storage Facilities.- 13.8 Main Results.- 14 Bibliography.- 14.1 References According to the Text.- 14.2 Additional References, Conference Reports and Investigations of Individual Countries.