The Future of Low Birth-Rate Populations

ISBN-13: 9780415127042 / Angielski / Miękka / 1995 / 204 str.

Lincoln H. Day

Opis

Everywhere in the world, populations of largely European origin are currently exeriencing not only their lowest-ever fertility levels, but what seem likely to be their longest-ever period of fertility at below-replacement levels. Although it is widely assumed that the fertiliy of these countries will return to replacement levels within 30 to 35 years, there is at present no empirical evidence that this will happen. The inevitable demographic results of this fertility pattern are an older age structure and a decline in numbers. Many see this as leading to labour shortages and wage inflation; even to weakened national defence and the disappearance of European peoples and culture. But while they are inevitable in today's low birth-rate populations, numerical declines and older age structures are unlikely to be either as great or as disruptive as commonly anticipated. Moreover, the policies proposed to avoid such demographic developments are clearly unsuitable. The inevitability of these changes - new in human history - must be accepted before societies can adjust to them and realize the benefits that are inherent in them.

Recenzje

`Deserves to be read by anyone interested in the implications of persistent low fertility and consequent deomgraphic ageing.' - Population and Development Review

`With its bold ideas about no-growth and negative-growth populations scenarios, the book is bound to stimulate debate.' - Population Today

`The book can be confidently recommended to the non-population expert as well as to demographers themselves. [It is] clearly and cogently written... Lincoln Day makes an excellent case that a stable population with more old people could be a more sustainable and harmonious society.' - Australian National University Reporter

`... lucid ... should be of substantial interest to scholars in the fields of demography, sociology, gerontology and European studies.' - Choice

Spis treści

1 THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION 2 THE FUTURE OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY 3 THE CHALLENGE OF NUMERICAL DECLINE AND OLDER AGE STRUCTURE: PART 1. FINANCES AND THE PROVISION OF CARE 4 THE CHALLENGE OF NUMERICAL DECLINE AND OLDER AGE STRUCTURE: PART 2. HOUSEHOLDS, LABOR FORCE, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND BEHAVIOR 5 POLICY ALTERNATIVES: DEMOGRAPHIC 6 SOME COMPENSATIONS IN THE TREND TOWARD OLDER AGE STRUCTURES AND NUMERICAL DECLINES 7 POLICY ALTERNATIVES: NONDEMOGRAPHIC 8 CONCLUSION

O autorze

Prior to his recent retirement Lincoln H. Day was Senior Fellow in Demography at the Australian National University.