The Art of Conjecture

ISBN-13: 9781138534315 / Angielski / Twarda / 2017 / 325 str.

Bertrand De Jouvenel

Opis

The Art of Conjecture clearly explains what the "study of the future" can mean. De Jouvenel emphasizes the logical and political problems of forecasting and discusses methods in economics, sociology, and political science by which the future can be studied

Spis treści

Introduction 1 On the Nature of the Future 2 A Need of Our Species 3 Terminology Part I Personal Destiny 4 The Project 5 The Conditional 6 The Future as an Object of Knowledge 7 The Principle of Uncertainty Part II Of Predictions 8 Predictions: I 9 Predictions: II 10 Historical Prediction and Scientific Prediction Part III Ways of Conceiving the Future 11 Process and Action 12 The Changing Scene 13 Conjectures and Decisions 14 The Pragmatism of Conjecture and a Few Consequences Part IV Quantitative Predictions 15 On Quantification 16 Short-Term Economic Forecasting 17 Long-Term Economic Forecasting and Its Social Aspects Part V Toward the Surmising Forum 18 The Political Order and Foreseeability 19 The Forecasting of Ideas 20 The Surmising Forum

O autorze

de Jouvenel, Bertrand