Strategy for R&d: Studies in the Microeconomics of Development

ISBN-13: 9783642460975 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 330 str.

T. Marschak; T. K. Jr. Glennan; R. Summers

Opis

89 TABLE 5 USE OR PLANNED USE OF MAJOR ENGINES IN AIR FORCE AND NAVY AIRCRAFT a Engine Air Force Aircraft Navy Aircraft F-80, T-33, XF-92, YB-61, AJ2, F9F-7, TV-I, J-33 YB-62, F-94 (A, B), TM- T2-V, P4M-I 61 ( tactical missile) X-3, XF-88 F3D, F2H, F6U, F7U J-34 F-84 (B, C, D, E, G, H) J-35 FJ-I B-45, XB-51, XF-9J, B-36, J-47 B-47, F-86 (D, F, K) J-48 F-94C F9F J-57 B-52, YB-60, F-lOO, A3D, F4D, F8U F-I02A, F-I0l (A, B), SNARK, F-105A, F-I07, KC-135A, B-57D, X-16 F-84F, B-57 FIIF, A4D, FJ-3, J-65 FJ-4, F9F YQ-l, YQ-2, T-37 J-69 SNARK, YF-89E, B-66 J-71 F-I01, F-I02B, F-I05, J-75 F-I07 F8U, XP6M B-58, F-I04, F-IOIA (see J-79 note c, Table 4) F5D, FIIF, A3J, F4H T-34 C-133A, YC-97J, YC-12IF R7V-2 XF-84H T-40 R3Y, XFY, A2D YC-130, YC-131C T-56 Note: a Aircraft in which engine was used or was planned to be used. For at least one (and generally more) of the aircraft in the list associated with a given engine, the decision to use the engine was made when the engine was in the final stages of develop ment. (In the case of the J -57, J-79, andJ-75 this is true of nearly all the aircraft listed. ) No Jist extends beyond 1956. Summary For an engine developed independently of an airframe the de veloper may constrain the performance, weight, and size of an engine at the start."

Spis treści

1. The Microeconomic Study of Development.- The Nature of the Studies.- The Microeconomic Study of Development and its Relation to Broader Economic Issues.- The Management of Government-financed R&D.- The Market Allocation of Resources to R&D.- R&D, Technical Change, and Economic Growth.- 2. Issues in the Choice of Development Policies.- A. What Is Development?.- B. The Structure of a Development: Uncertainty Reducing and Routine Tasks.- C. The Nature of Internal Uncertainties in Development.- D. The Resolution of Uncertainty.- E. The Elements of Development Policy.- F. The Component State of the Art Advance.- G. Component Interrelatedness.- H. The Use of Parallel Developments.- I. Distribution of Effort Among Uncertainty Reducing Tasks.- J. The Impact of Available Time and Resources upon Development Strategies.- K. External Uncertainties.- L. The Relation of Development Strategies to External Uncertainties.- M. Conclusion.- 3. The Role of Project Histories in the Study of R&D.- A. Introduction.- B. Airborne Radars.- “Side-looking” Radar.- World War II Radars.- Some Postwar Radars.- Interpretation.- C. Aircraft Engines.- The Nature of Engine Development: An Illustrative Model.- Issues to Be Examined in the Engine Histories.- The J-79.- The J-57 and J-75.- The J-40.- Some Shorter Histories: J-46, J-33, J-35, T-35.- Tabular Summaries of Uncertainties in the Engine Projects Studied.- Summary.- D. Fighter Aircraft.- The F-100.- The F-102.- The F-104.- E. Two Postwar Strategic Jet Bomber Programs.- The B-52.- The B-47.- F. The Sidewinder Missile.- Development History.- G. Conclusions.- 4. Cost Estimates as Predictors of Actual Costs: A Statistical Study of Military Developments.- A. Introduction and Summary.- Aims and Scope of the Study.- Outline of Methods and Results.- B. An Analysis of Cost-estimate Chronologies.- Errors in Nonmilitary Cost Estimating.- Model of the Development Process (I).- Preliminary Description of the Data.- Raw Measure of Accuracy of Estimates: Raw F.- Adjusted Measure of Accuracy of Estimates: F.- Model of the Development Process (II); First Variable: Timing Within the Development Program.- Second Variable: Technological Advance.- Bivariate Analysis of t and A.- Third Variable: Length of Development Period.- Fourth Variable: Calendar Date.- Regression Results: Algebraic.- Hypothesis Testing.- Regression Results: Graphic.- Fifth Variable: Missiles Versus Aircraft; Sixth Variable: Quantity Adjustment.- Seventh Variable: Estimator and/or Contractor.- Eighth Variable: Benchmark Time.- Data Problem: Errors in Measurement.- Data Problem: Randomness.- Estimation of Independent Variables; Weighting Observations.- Cost Changes of Major Article Components.- The “Changing-configuration” Hypothesis.- Conscious Underbidding of Contractors?.- C. The Consequences of Cost-estimate Inaccuracies.- Cost Inaccuracies Versus Other Uncertainties.- System Choice and Inaccurate Cost Estimates: Bias.- System Choice and Inaccurate Cost Estimates: Variance.- Implications for Cost-effectiveness Studies.- Implications for Force-structure Projections.- 5. Toward a Normative Theory of Development.- A. Introduction.- B. Normative Problems in Development Strategy.- 1. The Framework.- 2. The Developer’s Task Under Certainty.- 3. The Developer’s Task Under Uncertainty.- 4. The Pure Parallel Approach Problem with One or More Review Points.- 5. The Parallel Approach Problem with Sequential Selection of Approaches at Each Review Point.- 6, The Pursuit of Approaches with Different Intensities.- 7. Multi-component Problems.- 8. Further Refinements for the Case of Two Valued Preferences.- 9. Many Valued Preferences.- 10. Changes in the World Outside the Developer’s Control.- 11. Project Selection Problems.- 12. Previously Explored Sequential Decision Problems Related to the Parallel Approach Problem.- 13. Limitations of Problems Based on the Approach Concept.- C. Normative Problems in Development Organization.- 1. General Normative Models of Organizations.- 2. Normative Models of the Development Project.- Appendix: Proof of Theorem 4 of Chapter 5.