Reliability Analysis for Asset Management of Electric Power Grids

ISBN-13: 9781119125174 / Angielski / Twarda / 2019 / 528 str.

Robert D. Ross

Opis

A practical guide to facilitate statistically well-founded decisions in the management of assets of an electricity grid Effective and economic electric grid asset management involves many complex decisions on repair, replacement and maintenance.

Recenzje

Robert Ross?s book gives a deep insight in useful statistical analysis methods for asset management practice. It covers all the basics and specific distributions in a structured and understandable way, before it sets out to give its insight into system and component reliability. I particularly liked the way the subject matter is structured in small and understandable topics. This way it?s easy to ?pick and mix? throughout the different subject matters of the book to acquire the relevant knowledge. One of the other strong suits of the book is the application to real life asset and incident management. Robert links theory and practice together in a way which really shows the value of a statistical and reliability driven approach to asset management. - Marcel Hooijmans, Sr. Specialist Asset Management, Stedin DSO, The NetherlandsThis is a well-grounded book that is really good to read! It is informative and accessible and something that would be suitable as a source book for a more general course on engineering statistics and not one specifically directed towards electric power grid assets. Overall the book develops a very solid statistical basis of use in engineering and, particularly reliability analysis. I believe the book is of such general value that it could be used as part of a manufacturing engineering course with relative ease. I think this should probably be on the bookcase of anyone working in asset management of utilities. The material is presented with a logical and paced approach, taking the reader through basic statistics to some quite advanced concepts. - Professor Alistair Duffy, Professor of Electromagnetics and Director of the Institute of Engineering Sciences at De Montfort University, Leicester, UKRobert Ross creates a comprehensive interface between the statistical analysis and the Asset Management tasks and problems of the electric grid. Many practical examples give a clear and easy understanding of the different subjects?the book is suitable for a direct entry into the topic. Later it can also be used as a reference work, particularly regarding the synoptic tables. This makes the book ideal for students as well as for practical use by asset managers. - Dr. Horst Gunter Bender, TenneT TSO GmbH, GermanyThe book features ten chapters, with the main focus on the fundamentals of statistics. The way the book is written makes it possible to be used as supplement to lectures at universities about asset management because of the following points. Each chapter features an introductory paragraph and a section at the end with a summary of the topics covered by that chapter. Furthermore, each chapter provides exemplary questions and exercises which facilitate understanding of the chapter. Additionally, the author supports his argumentation with easily understandable practical examples from the field of electrical engineering. - Nicholas Hill, TU Braunschweig, GermanyAnybody working in asset and incident management of electric power grids will greatly welcome this book if they want to understand and apply the mathematics used for assessing the reliability and availability of components and systems. The author makes a decisive step forward in presenting the knowledge and skills needed for analyzing failure data and constructing reliable systems. Throughout the book, readers can taste the thorough experience of Ross both as a practitioner and as a researcher in the field of reliability analysis. This makes the book a must-have for engineers, asset managers and risk managers who are interested in decision analysis for managing assets of electric power grids. - Rene Janssen, Associate Professor of Mathematics and Operations Research at the Netherlands Defence Academy

Spis treści

Preface xviiAcknowledgements xxiList of Symbols and Abbreviations xxiiiAbout the Companion website xxix1 Introduction 11.1 Electric Power Grids 11.2 Asset Management of Electric Power Grids 21.3 Maintenance Styles 41.4 Incident Management 201.5 Summary 212 Basics of Statistics and Probability 252.1 Outcomes, Sample Space and Events 262.2 Probability of Events 292.3 Probability versus Statistical Distributions 302.4 Fundamental Statistical Functions 332.5 Mixed Distributions 382.6 Multivariate Distributions and Power Law 492.7 Summary 593 Measures in Statistics 633.1 Expected Values and Moments 633.2 Median and Other Quantiles 733.3 Mode 753.4 Merits of Mean, Median and Modal Value 753.5 Measures for Comparing Distributions 773.6 Similarity of Distributions 823.7 Compliance 963.8 Summary 974 Specific Distributions 1014.1 Fractions and Ranking 1014.2 Extreme Value Statistics 1124.3 Mean and Variance Statistics 1244.4 Frequency and Hit Statistics 1344.5 Summary 1525 Graphical Data Analysis 1575.1 Data Quality 1585.3 Model-Based or Parametric Graphs 1765.4 Weibull Plot 1785.5 Exponential Plot 1885.6 Normal Distribution 1935.7 Power Law Reliability Growth 1975.8 Summary 2026 Parameter Estimation 2076.1 General Aspects with Parameter Estimation 2076.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimators 2126.3 Linear Regression 2236.4 Summary 2637 System and Component Reliability 2677.1 The Basics of System Reliability 2677.2 Block Diagrams 2687.3 Series Systems 2697.4 Parallel Systems and Redundancy 2727.5 Combined Series and Parallel Systems, Common Cause 2737.6 EXTRA: Reliability and Expected Life of k-out-of-n Systems 2767.7 Analysis of Complex Systems 2777.8 Summary 2858 System States, Reliability and Availability 2918.1 States of Components and Systems 2918.2 States and Transition Rates of One-Component Systems 2928.3 System State Probabilities via Markov Chains 2978.4 Markov-Laplace Method for Reliability and Availability 3038.5 Lifetime with Absorbing States and Spare Parts 3068.6 Mean Lifetimes MTTFF and MTBF 3108.7 Availability and Steady-State Situations 3128.8 Summary 3149 Application to Asset and Incident Management 3179.1 Maintenance Styles 3179.1.1 Period-Based Maintenance Optimization for Lowest Costs 3179.2 Health Index 3349.3 Testing and Quality Assurance 3389.4 Incident Management (Determining End of Trouble) 34210 Miscellaneous Subjects 36710.1 Basics of Combinatorics 36710.2 Power Functions and Asymptotic Behaviour 36910.3 Regression Analysis 38010.4 Sampling from a Population and Simulations 38610.5 Hypothesis Testing 40710.6 Approximations for the Normal Distribution 40810.6.1 Power Series 40910.6.2 Power Series Times Density f (y) 40910.6.3 Inequalities for Boxing R(y) and h(y) for Large y 41010.6.4 Polynomial Expression for F(y) 41010.6.5 Power Function for the Reliability Function R(y) 41010.6.6 Wrap-up of Approximations 412Appendix A Weibull Plot 413Appendix B Laplace Transforms 415Appendix C Taylor Series 417Appendix D SI Prefixes 419Appendix E Greek Characters 421Appendix F Standard Weibull and Exponential Distribution 423Appendix G Standardized Normal Distribution 429Appendix H Standardized Lognormal Distribution 435Appendix I Gamma Function 441Appendix J Plotting Positions 447References 469Index 473

O autorze

Robert Ross, TenneT B.V., Arnhem, Netherlands 
Robert Rosshas more than 30 years experience in the electric power supply field. He is currently working as a Strategist Asset Management at TenneT B.V. (Arnhem, Netherlands) as well as a Professor of Reliable Sustainable Transmission Grids at HAN University of Applied Science (Arnhem, Netherlands) and a Director at IWO – Institute for Science and Sustainable Development (Ede, Netherlands).  He has written many papers on Weibull statistics in relation to reliability & the availability of electrical energy systems and he contributed to the IEEE 930 standard. He is active in the field of: research, education, consultancy, organizational leadership and strategy. He has carried out projects in Europe, Asia, Africa and USA, enabling him to look at reliability issues from different perspectives. With IWO he conducts research on statistical methods, develops software and supports asset management courses. At TenneT he applies the theories to asset management strategies and is involved in establishing the Health Index and Risk Index methodology.

Blurb

A practical guide to facilitate statistically well–founded decisions in the management of assets of an electricity grid

Effective and economic electric grid asset management involves many complex decisions on repair, replacement and maintenance. This timely reference provides a statistically well–founded, tried and tested analysis methodology for improved decision making and asset management strategy for optimum grid operation and reliability.

The techniques described are also sufficiently robust to apply to small data sets enabling asset managers to deal with early failures or testing with limited sample sets. The book describes the background, concepts and statistical techniques to evaluate failure probability, remaining lifetime, compliancy with specifications, effectiveness of network configurations and stocks of spare parts. It also shows how the representation and analysis of data can be made consistent, as well as explaining modern upcoming methodologies such as the Health Index and Risk Index.

Key features:

• Offers hands–on tools and techniques for data analysis, health and risk indices and the resulting maintenance strategies.
• End–of–chapter problems and solutions to facilitate self–study via a book companion website.

The book is essential reading for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in electrical engineering, quality engineers, utilities and industry strategists, transmission and distribution system planners, asset managers and risk managers.