Predictability of Complex Dynamical Systems

ISBN-13: 9783642802560 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 234 str.

Yurii A. Kravtsov;James B. Kadtke

Opis

This book was originally conceived as a continuation in theme of the collec tive monograph Limits of Predictability (Yu. A. Kravtsov, Ed., Springer Series in Synergetics, Vol. 60, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 1993). The main thrust of that book was to examine the various effects and factors (system non stationarity, measurement noise, predictive model accuracy, and so on) that may limit, in a fundamental fashion, our ability to mathematically predict physical and man-made phenomena and events. Particularly interesting was the diversity of fields from which the papers and examples were drawn, in cluding climatology, physics, biophysics, cybernetics, synergetics, sociology, and ethnogenesis. Twelve prominant Russian scientists, and one American (Prof. A. J. Lichtman) discussed their philosophical and scientific standpoints on the problem of the limits of predictability in their various fields. During the preparation of that book, the editor (Yu. A. K) had the great pleasure of interacting with world-renowned Russian scientists such as oceanologist A. S. Monin, geophysicist V. I. Keilis-Borok, sociologist I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada, histo rian L. N. Gumilev, to name a few. Dr. Angela M. Lahee, managing editor of the Synergetics Series at Springer, was enormously helpful in the publishing of that book. In 1992, Prof. H. Haken along with Dr. Lahee kindly supported the idea of publishing a second volume on the theme of nonlinear system predictability, this time with a more international flavor."

Spis treści

1 Introduction.- 2 Time Series Analysis: The Search for Determinism.- Method to Discriminate Against Determinism in Time Series Data.- Observing and Predicting Chaotic Signals: Is 2% Noise Too Much?.- A Discriminant Procedure for the Solution of Inverse Problems for Non-stationary Systems.- Classifying Complex, Deterministic Signals.- 3 Dynamical Modeling and Forecasting Algorithms.- Strategy and Algorithms of Dynamical Forecasting.- Parsimony in Dynamical Modeling.- The Bifurcation Paradox: The Final State Is Predictable If the Transition Is Fast Enough.- 4 Prediction of Biological Systems.- Models and Predictability of Biological Systems.- Limits of Predictability for Biospheric Processes.- 5 Analysis and Forecasting of Financial Data.- The Application of Wave Form Dictionaries to Stock Market Index Data.- 6 Socio-Political and Global Problems.- Messy Futures and Global Brains.

Blurb

This is a book book for researchers and practitioners interested in modeling, prediction and forecasting of natural systems based on nonlinear dynamics. It is a practical guide to data analysis and to the development of algorithms, especially for complex systems. Topics such as the characterization of nonlinear correlations in data as dynamical systems, reconstruction of dynamical models from data, nonlinear noise reduction and the limits of predicatability are discussed. The chapters are written by leading experts and consider practical problems such as signal and time series analysis, biomedical data analysis, financial analysis, stochastic modeling, human evolution, and political modeling. The book includes new methods for nonlinear filtering of complex signals, new algorithms for signal classification, and the concept of the "Global Brain".