New Product Forecasting: An Applied Approach

ISBN-13: 9780765616098 / Angielski / Twarda / 2006 / 176 str.

Kenneth B. Kahn; Martin Joseph; Alec Finney

Opis

Concise and jargon free, this is a one-step primer on the tools and techniques of forecasting new product development. Equally useful for students and professionals, the book is generously illustrated, and features numerous current real-world industry cases and examples. Part I covers the basic foundations and processes of new product forecasting, and links forecasting to the broader processes of new product development and sales and operations planning. Part II includes detailed, step-by-step techniques of new product forecasting, from judgmental techniques to regression analysis. Each chapter in this section begins with the most basic techniques, then progresses to more advanced levels. Part III addresses managerial considerations of new product forecasting, including postlaunch issues such as cannibalization and supercession. The final chapter presents an important set of industry best practices and benchmarks.

Spis treści

Foreword, Martin Joseph and Alec Finney; Preface; PART I. FOUNDATIONS OF APPLIED NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING; 1. Introduction to Applied New Product Forecasting; Clarifying the Terminology of Product, Service, and/or Offering; * A New Product Forecasting Directive; * Beginning the New Product Forecasting Endeavor; * Types of New Product Estimates; * New Product Planning Versus New Product Forecasting; * Types of New Products; * New Product Forecasting Techniques; * New Product Forecasting Strategy: Linking Techniques to Type of New Product; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 2. New Product Development and New Product Forecasting: Process and Structure; The New Product Development Process; * Using Teams to Structure New Product Development; * The New Product Forecasting Process; * Assumptions Management; * S&OP and New Product Forecasting; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; PART II. NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING TECHNIQUES; 3. Judgmental New Product Forecasting Techniques; Jury of Executive Opinion; * Sales Force Composite; * Scenario Analysis; * Delphi Method; * Assumptions-Based Modeling; * Using Assumptions-Based Models to Identify Critical Assumptions and Examine Risk; * Decision Trees; * Markov Process Model; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 4. Customer/Market Research Techniques for New Product Forecasting; Concept Testing; * Product Use Testing; * Market Testing; * Conjoint Analysis; * Quality Function Deployment; * The Kano Model; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 5. Time Series Techniques for New Product Forecasting; Look-Like Analysis (Analogous Forecasting); * Diffusion Modeling; * Composite Curve Approach; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 6. Regression Analysis for New Product Forecasting; Correlation; * Regression Analyses; * Final Comments on Regression Analyses; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; PART III. MANAGERIAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR APPLIED NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING; 7. Special Topics in New Product Forecasting; Understanding the Launch Phenomenon; * The Launch Cycle; * Pre-Launch Preparation: Launch Control Protocol; * Launch Tracking and the Launch Scorecard; * Special New Product Forecasting Issues; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 8. New Product Forecasting Benchmarks; Review of Literature on New Product Forecasting Practices; * New Product Forecasting Benchmarks; * Final Observations; * Implications for Your Company's New Product Forecasting Process; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; References; * About the Author; * Index.

O autorze

Kenneth B. Kahn (BIE, Georgia Institute of Technology; MSIE, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University; Ph.D. in Marketing, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University) is a tenured Associate Professor of Marketing and a College of Business Administration Reagan Scholar in the Department of Marketing and Logistics at the University of Tennessee. His teaching and research interests concern product development, product management, and forecasting of existing and new products. He has published in a variety of journals, including the Journal of Product Innovation Management, Journal of Business Research, Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Business Forecasting, Marketing Management, and R&D Management. He is the author of the book Product Planning Essentials and editor of the PDMA Handbook on New Product Development, 2nd edition.Dr. Kahn is cofounding Director of the University of Tennessee’s Sales Forecasting Management Forum, which specializes in education and research involving market analysis and sales forecasting. He is also the current Vice President of Publications for the Product Development and Management Association (www.pdma.org). Prior to joining the faculty at the University of Tennessee, Dr. Kahn was Director of Georgia Tech’s Marketing Analysis Laboratory and cofounder of Georgia Tech’s Collaborative Product Development Laboratory, both of which conducted corporate-sponsored research.Dr. Kahn’s industrial experience includes serving as an industrial engineer and project engineer for the Weyerhaeuser Company and a manufacturing engineer for Respironics, Inc. He has consulted with and facilitated benchmarking sessions with numerous companies, including 3M, Acco Brands, Amgen, Biolab, Borden, Cargill, Cheps USA, Ciba Specialty Chemicals, Coca-Cola, Corning, Enterasys Networks, Gillette, Hanes/L’eggs, Hewlett-Packard, Lifescan, Mary Kay Cosmetics, McNeil Consumer Healthcare, Miller Brewing Company, Moen, Motorola, Mrs. Smith’s Bakeries, Nabisco, Pharmavite, Schering-Plough, SmithKline Beecham, Springs Industries, Symbol Technologies, Tropicana, Unilever, and Xerox.