Future Stresses for Energy Resources: Energy Abundance: Myth or Reality?

ISBN-13: 9789401083683 / Angielski / Miękka / 2011 / 226 str.

Jean-Romain Frisch

Opis

From its very beginnings, the Conservation Commission has devoted a large part of its research to long-term energy analyses. Following the first oil shock, it undertook its earliest work on the world demand-supply equilib- rium for the period 2000-2020, the results of which were presented to the 10th Congress of the Conference at Istanbul in 1977. Since then, its analyses have become ever deeper, ever more various. In 1980, the stress was on the future for the Third World, while in 1983, its forecasts set out a new panorama for the world and for the main regions in the period 2000-2020. Therefore, what was more natural than that the Conservation Commission should bring its interest to bear on one of the major aspects of energy strategy: the comparison of future needs not merely with the fluctuations of supply but also with stocks of reserves. The problem, of course, had not been entirely ignored, but the field tended to be one in which intuitions and sketchy proofs were more readily available than systematic and comprehen- sive analysis.

Spis treści

I: Results.- 1. Consumption projections.- 1.1 Total energy consumption.- 1.1.1 World demand.- 1.1.2 North/South axis.- 1.1.3 Contrasts of South.- 1.2 Supply structure.- 1.2.1 World.- 1.2.2 North.- 1.2.3 South.- 1.3 Accumulated consumptions.- 2. Energy resources.- 2.1 Regional outlook.- 2.1.1 World.- 2.1.2 North/South.- 2.2 Analysis by energy source.- 2.2.1 Solid mineral fuels.- 2.2.2 Oil.- 2.2.3 Natural gas.- 2.2.4 Uranium.- 2.2.5 Total non-renewable energies.- 3. General table of demand/resource stresses.- 4. Stresses in time.- 4.1 Short term: 1985–2000.- 4.2 Medium term: 2000–2020.- 4.3 Long term: 2020–2040.- 4.4 Very long term: 2020–2060.- 5. Stresses in space.- 5.1 Level 3: the 6 basic regions.- 5.1.1 North 1.- 5.1.2 North 2.- 5.1.3 South 1.- 5.1.4 South 2.- 5.1.5 Centrally Planned Asia.- 5.1.6 Third world with market economy.- 5.2 Level 2: The Global regions.- 5.2.1 North.- 5.2.2 South.- 5.2.3 Market Economy Zone.- 5.2.4 Centrally Planned Zone.- 5.3 Level 1: The world.- 6. Stresses by energy source.- 6.1 Solid mineral fuels.- 6.2 Oil.- 6.3 Natural gas.- 6.4 Uranium.- 6.5 Sensitivity variants.- 6.5.1 Fuelwood constrained variant.- 6.5.2 Nuclear variants.- a. Breeder reactors.- b. Nuclear moratorium.- 6.5.3 Fossil fuel constrained variant.- II: Conclusions.- 7. Conclusions.- 7.1 Slight stresses.- 7.2 Limited stresses.- 7.3 Serious stresses.- 7.4 Acute stresses.- 7.5 Energy abundance?.- III: Technical Annexes.- Annex 1: Composition and maps of the regions.- Annex 2: Composition of the review panels.- Annex 3: Units - equivalences.- Annex 4: Demographic Projections 1960–2060.- Energy Consumptions.- Annex 5: Reference base 1960–1980 (1984).- Annex 6: Projections 2000–2020.- Annex 7: Projections 2040–2060.- Annex 8: Accumulated consumptions 1985–2060.- Annex 9: Sensitivity variants.- Energy Resources.- Annex 10: Solid mineral fuels.- Annex 11: Oil.- Annex 12: Natural gas.- Annex 13: Uranium.- Annex 14: Non-renewable energies.- Annex 15: Graphs for accumulated consumptions/resources.- Annex 16: Evaluation of stresses on resources.- Annex 17: Main statistical sources.- List Of tables.- List Of figures.