Exploring and Shaping International Futures

ISBN-13: 9781594512315 / Angielski / Twarda / 2006 / 256 str.

Barry Hughes; Evan E. Hillebrand

Opis

"People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu

Spis treści

Chapter 1: Action in the Face of Uncertainty The Three Questions Elaborated How Should Our Study Proceed? Chapter 2: Global Change Types of Change Conclusion Chapter 3: Values and Understandings Values and Goals Causal Analysis Causal Understandings and Worldviews Conclusion Chapter 4: Understanding and Using IFs Use of IFs I: Data Analysis And Display Use of IFs II: Undertaking Scenario Analysis Elements of the Model Conclusion Chapter 5: Population Population Dynamics and Leverage Interventions and Scenario Analysis Conclusion Chapter 6: Economics Economic Dynamics and Leverage Interventions and Scenario Analysis Conclusion Chapter 7: Food and Agriculture Food and Agriculture Dynamics and Leverage Interventions and Scenario Analysis Conclusion Chapter 8: Energy Energy Dynamics and Leverage Interventions and Scenario Analysis Conclusion Chapter 9: The Environment Environmental Dynamics and Leverage Interventions and Scenario Analysis Conclusion Chapter 10: Domestic Social and Political Systems Sociopolitical Dynamics and Leverage Interventions and Scenario Analysis Conclusion Chapter 11: The Global Sociopolitical System Global System Dynamics and Leverage Points Interventions and Scenario Analysis Conclusion Chapter 12: Preferred Futures Contemporary Global Transformations Integrated Global Scenarios Integrations Scenarios: Common Elements Creating Futures by Making Choices

O autorze

Barry B. Hughes, Evan E. Hillebrand