Expert Judgment and Expert Systems

ISBN-13: 9783642866814 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 361 str.

Jeryl L. Mumpower; Lawrence D. Phillips; Ortwin Renn

Opis

This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. Support for the Workshop was provided by the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs, the U.S. Army Research Institute, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. The Workshop brought together researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of those goals. We wish to express our appreciation and thanks to the following persons for their support and assistance: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.

Spis treści

Keynote Lectures.- Toward a Unified Approach to the Study of Expert Judgment.- Some Abstract Problems in Knowledge Representation.- Principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process.- Policy Analysis and Decision Aids.- Invited Presentations.- Knowledge Systems, Expert Systems, and Risk Communication.- Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Is Probability Epistemologically and Heuristically Adequate?.- The Use of Causal Knowledge for Inferential Reasoning.- Interactive Decision Support Systems for Enhancing Expert Judgment.- Value-Driven Expert Systems for Decision Support.- Expert Systems and Creativity.- Expert Systems and Expert Judgment: A User’s Perspective.- Very Simple Expert Systems: An Application of Judgment Analysis to Political Risk Analysis.- Expert Systems and Intelligent Computer-Assisted-Instruction.- Assessing the Effectiveness of Expert Teams.- Expert Systems as Cognitive Tools for Human Decision Making.- Psychological Characteristics of Expert Decision Makers.- Descriptive and Prescriptive Models for Judgment and Decision Making: Implications for Knowledge Engineering.- Knowledge Extraction from Experts in View of the Construction of Expert Systems.- Common Sense Knowledge in Expert Systems.

O autorze

Prof. Dr. rer. pol. Ortwin Renn ist Sprecher des Vorstandes an der Akademie für Technikfolgenabschätzung in Stuttgart. Er lehrt Soziologie an der Universität Stuttgart.