Climate Change and Adaptation for Food Sustainability: Implications and Scenarios from Malaysia

ISBN-13: 9783030853778 / Angielski / Miękka / 2023 / 153 str.

Ferdous Ahmed; Abul Quasem Al-Amin; Zeeda Fatimah Mohamad

Opis

This book assesses the vulnerability impacts of climate change on food security by examining a 50 years scenario (2015- 2065) and following a top-down approach. Importantly, looking at the sustainable food production, the authors compared the cost-benefit of adaptation costs from 2015 to 2065. It was found that a 15% adaptation capacity is more efficient for Malaysia in order to combat the climate change effects on the food sector.  This book has developed a quantitative adaptive model namely, the Malaysian Climate and Economy (MCE) model, based on the dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling structure to examine food sustainability and adaptation strategies. Malaysia experiences an unusual combination of droughts and extreme rainfall events that can be attributed to climate change. These unusual events and consequences leave Malaysian policymakers looking for ways to make Malaysia self-sufficient in terms of agriculture. It is assumed that climate change effects may result in increasing food insecurity and vulnerability in the future. Policy measures are in place to lessen the likely climatic effects overall,  but there is an urgent need to develop an adaptation policy for the future. 

Spis treści

ABSTRACT          

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS     

LIST OF FIGURES              

LIST OF TABLES 

LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS               

Chapter One: Introduction         

1.1 Introduction               

1.2 Research background            

1.2.1 Problem statement             

1.3 Research questions

1.4 Objectives of the research  

1.5 Current climate change scenario in Malaysia

1.6 Significance of the study       

1.6.1 Limitations              

1.7 Conclusion  

1.8 Thesis organization 

Chapter Two: Literature Review               

2.1 Introduction               

2.2 Climate variability and climate change            

2.2.1 Declining food sector          

2.3 ADB Observations of Climate Change in Agriculture in South East Asia             

2.4 Dynamics of food security under changing climate    

2.5 Food security and climate change: a conceptual framework 

2.6 Contribution of food sector in Malaysian GDP:           

2.7 Potential impacts of climate change on food security in Malaysia:      

2.8 Climate change and self-sufficiency level in rice production in Malaysia:         

2.9 Food Security Policy in Malaysia        

2.10 Food security and responses to climate change       

2.11 Exploring development paths: institutions and collective behaviour               

2.12 Empirical literature on the impact of climate change              

2.13 Relevant literature based on national and international perspectives            

2.14 Models to assess the impact of climate change        

2.14.1 Partial equilibrium models             

2.14.2 Crop simulation models  

2.14.3 Agro-ecological zone (AEZ) models            

2.14.4 Ricardian models

2.15 Adaptation policy for food security

2.15.1 Levels and approaches of adaptation for Malaysia              

2.15.2 Government’s policies, challenges and actions for food security in the national level         

2.15.3 Food policy measures and challenges at international level            

2.16 Literature gap         

2.17Contribution toliterature for Malaysian perspectives             

Chapter Three: Methodology    

3.1 Introduction               

3.2 Hypothetical construction of the study          

3.3 General equilibrium theory 

3.4 Conceptual framework of the study

3.5 Sources of the data 

3.5.1 Study area               

3.5.2 Empirical economizing adoption    

3.6 Study of different level of adaptation option for climate change        

3.7 Description of Simulations   

3.8 The basic of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model  

3.9 Pros and Cons of the basic model     

3.10 Social accounting matrix (SAM)       

3.11 SAM Market Closure            

3.11.1 Market Clearance Condition         

3.11.2 Normal Profit Condition  

3.11.3 Factor Market Balance     

3.12 Balancing a social accounting matrix (SAM)

3.13 A CGE Model for Malaysian Economy           

3.13.1 Basic Structure of the Model        

3.13.2 Prices      

3.14 Production               

3.15 Domestic demand 

3.16 Mathematical Statement and Specification of the MICE Model        

3.17 Price block 141

3.17.1 Import Price         

3.17.2 Export Price          

3.17.3 Composite Goods Price   

3.17.4 Domestic Output Price    

3.17.5 Activity Price        

3.17.6 Value-added Price

3.17.7 Consumer Price Index     

3.18 Producer Price Index for Non-traded Market Output            

3.19 The Production and Commodity Block Equations     

3.20 Factor Income

3.20.1 Household Income            

3.20.2 Household Consumption Demand             

3.20.3 Investment Demand        

3.20.4 Government Revenue    

3.20.5 Government Expenditure              

3.21 System Constraints Block   

3.21.1 Factor Markets   

3.21.2 Composite Commodity Markets 

3.21.3 Current-Account Balance for the Rest of the World, (in Foreign Currency)                150

3.21.4 Savings-Investment Balance         

3.22 Climate Change Block          

3.23 Calibrating the CGE Model 

3.24 Perform Scenario Simulations within the CGE Model             

3.25 Conclusion 157

Chapter Four: Scenarios of Adaptation Cost for Food Sustainability          

4.1 Introduction               

4.2 Policy scenarios        

4.3 Description of Simulations   

4.4 Different scenario analysis   

4.4.1 Different level of damages from climate change    

4.4.2 Cost of different adaptation option             

4.4.3 The effect of climate change in government expenditure 

4.4.4 The impact of climate change on food sustainability over time        

4.4.5 The effects of adaptation strategies to Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP)           

Chapter Five: Policy Implications and Validations              

5.1 Introduction               

5.2 Suitable adaptation policy for food sustainability       

5.3 Macro-economic effects of climate change  

5.4 Predicted implications of adaptation options on food sustainability: 

5.5 Adaptation action and policy issues for Malaysia        

5.6 Summary     

Chapter Six: Adaptation Policy Recommendation             

6.1 Introduction               

6.2 Summary of findings              

6.2.1 Different level of adaptation action             

6.2.2 Adaptation cost and benefit for adaptation policy 

6.2.3 Impacts of climate change for adaptation option   

6.3 Capacity building options and gaps in the local policy community       

6.4 Policy suggestion     

6.5 Contribution

6.6 Suggestions for future research        

6.7 Limitations   2

References        

List of Publications and Papers Presented            

Appendix           

O autorze

Dr Ferdous Ahmed is an Assistant Professor of Environmental Science and Sustainability at the College of Agricultural Sciences, International University of Business Agriculture and Technology (IUBAT). He is also the Assistant Director of the IUBAT-Institute of SDG Studies (IISS). Dr Ahmed worked as an Assistant Professor (Adjunct) in the School of Environmental Science & Management at the Independent University, Bangladesh (IUB). He worked as a Postdoc Fellow at the University of Malaya, Malaysia. Dr Ahmed received both BSc and MSc degrees in Botany (Major-Environmental Management) from the University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh. Dr Ahmed received hisa PhD in Climate Change Adaptation from the University of Malaya, Malaysia with Bright--Saprks Scholarship. Dr Ahmed’s research interests are area climate change adaptation & mitigation policy, sustainability studies, waste management, education for sustainable development, Disaster Management.

Abul Quasem Al-Amin, Ph.D (UKM, Malaysia), MSCP Fellow (MiT, USA) is a Professor (Adjunct) at the University of Waterloo, Canada. He is also a Director at the Centre for Asian Climate and Environmental Policy Studies, Canada. Prof Al-Amin is currently associated with many research works at UNDP, HEKS, HAW-Germany, Springer USA, FORUM FOR FUTURE Singapore, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Malaysia, Malaysian Biotechnology Corporation, Economic Planning Unit Malaysia, Country representative of Malaysia to UNFCCC, Academy Science Malaysia, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia and Sime Darby Malaysia. Prof Al-Amin is assisting countries, especially ASEAN in accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy through enhancing policymakers’ capacity to promote green technologies, including renewable energy development, affordable access to clean energy for the poor, and support to industries and other economic sectors in adopting low carbon technologies.

Dr Zeeda Fatimah Mohamad is an Associate Professor at the Department of Science and Technology Studies (STS), Faculty of Science, University of Malaya. She holds a BSc. in Ecology from the Institute of Biological Sciences, Universiti Malaya; MSc in Environmental Management and Policy from the International Institute of Industrial Environmental Economics (IIIEE), Lund University, Sweden; and MSc and PhD in Science and Technology Policy from SPRU Science and Technology Policy, University of Sussex, United Kingdom. In line with her academic background, Dr Mohamad’s research interest is primarily understanding the relationship between the development of science, technology and innovation (STI) and environmental protection, particularly within the context of sustainable development and associated challenges to late-industrialising countries. She is also one the founding members of the University Malaya Campus Sustainability Initiative.