Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios

ISBN-13: 9780471303527 / Angielski / Twarda / 1997 / 464 str.

Liam Fahey;Fahey; Liam Fahey

Opis

Methods using the technique of scenario planning to chart a company's course are presented in this book. Scenario planning refers to a particular method of forecasting future economic, political and demographic developments. Managers sh ould learn proven techniques for identifying significant economic, political, and demographic trends and extrapolating likely future scenarios from them. They are offered advice on how to think systematically about the differing implications of various plausible future environments.

Spis treści

Partial table of contents:

INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO LEARNING.

Integrating Strategy and Scenarios (L. Fahey & R. Randall).

Using Scenarios to Identify, Analyze, and Manage Uncertainty (B. Marsh).

BASIC APPROACHES TO CONSTRUCTING SCENARIOS.

Scenario Planning: Mapping the Paths to the Desired Future (D. Mason).

Testing Your Strategies in Scenarios (C. Perrottet).

Scenarios for Global Investment Strategy for the New Century (P. Schwartz & J. Ogilvy).

SCENARIO APPLICATION IN DIVERSE CONTEXTS.

Competitor Scenarios: Projecting a Rival′s Marketplace Strategy (L. Fahey).

MANAGING THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT FOR SCENARIO LEARNING.

Articulating the Business Idea: The Key to Relevant Scenarios (K. van der Heijden).

The Cross–Scenario Planning Process (D. Randall & R. Wilson).

Notes.

About the Author.

Index.

O autorze

LIAM FAHEY, PhD, a consultant to a number of leading North American and European firms, is an adjunct professor of management at Babson College and a visiting professor of strategic management at Cranfield School of Management in the United Kingdom. Dr. Fahey has authored or edited six books on management, most recently The Portable MBA in Strategy (Wiley), with Robert M. Randall. ROBERT M. RANDALL heads a San Francisco–based publishing business that operates management magazines; he writes management articles, books, white papers, and brochures. He and Liam Fahey are collaborating on their third book, Strategic Management Tools (Wiley).

Blurb

"Scenarios are now a part of every successful manager′s toolkit. This book is the first comprehensive guide to the latest developments in scenario thinking written by today′s leading practitioners in the field." –Napier Collyns, a pioneer of scenario planning at Dutch/Shell now Managing Director, Gloal Business Network (GBN) "In twenty years of helping companies create and plan for their futures, I have never come across a book that dealt with the use of scenario–based planning as comprehensively as this one." –David Kelley CEO, IDEO Product Development the creators of the Apple Mouse "This book is the greatest reference today on scenario planning–the preeminent tool for those who believe that the future belongs to those with the imagination to create it. The combination of scenario planning and strategy formulation can be a wondrous right brain process that galvanizes teams with a compelling vision and common purpose." –David E. Schnedler Director, Corporate Planning Sun Microsystems, Inc. "Organizations must create intellectual and organizational tension around distinctly different views of the future. Learning from the Future demonstrates why scenarios are ideally suited to generate such tension and how to use scenario learning as a steppingstone to superior strategies." –Richard Pascale, Associate Fellow of Oxford University and author of Managing on the Edge: How the Smartest Companies Use Conflict to Stay Ahead "An invaluable guide to the mind–stretching benefits of scenarios that are fully embedded in the strategic thinking process. It should be required reading for any management team embarking on scenario development so they can realize the benefits and evade the pitfalls." –George Day, Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania