Kategoria BISAC: Mathematics >> Probability & Statistics - Bayesian Analysis

Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fixed coefficients, but random variables with a certain probability distribution. The increasing necessity to solve complex problems in Structural Optimization, Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Mechanics, requires the development of new...

Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.

New to the Second Edition

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In real-life scenarios, service management involves complex decision-making processes usually affected by random or stochastic variables. Under such uncertain conditions, the development and use of robust and flexible strategies, algorithms, and methods can provide the quantitative information necessary to make better business decisions. Decision Making in Service Industries: A Practical Approach explores the challenges that must be faced to provide intelligent strategies for efficient management and decision making that will increase your organization's competitiveness...

When scientists formulate their theories, expectations, and hypotheses, they often use statements like: I expect mean A to be bigger than means B and C"; I expect that the relation between Y and both X1 and X2 is positive"; and I expect the relation between Y and X1 to be stronger than the relation between Y and X2." Stated otherwise, they formulate their expectations in terms of inequality constraints among the parameters in which they are interested, that is, they formulate Informative Hypotheses.

There is currently a sound theoretical foundation for the...

Winner of the IIE Book of the Month for June 2012

A project can be simple or complex. In each case, proven project management processes must be followed. In all cases of project management implementation, control must be exercised in order to assure that project objectives are achieved. Statistical Techniques for Project Control seamlessly integrates qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques for project control. It fills the void that exists in the application of statistical techniques to project control.

The book begins by defining...

Unexpected Expectations: The Curiosities of a Mathematical Crystal Ball explores how paradoxical challenges involving mathematical expectation often necessitate a reexamination of basic premises. The author takes you through mathematical paradoxes associated with seemingly straightforward applications of mathematical expectation and shows how these unexpected contradictions may push you to reconsider the legitimacy of the applications.

The book requires only an understanding of basic algebraic operations and includes supplemental mathematical background in...

Now that people are aware that data can make the difference in an election or a business model, data science as an occupation is gaining ground. But how can you get started working in a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary field that s so clouded in hype? This insightful book, based on Columbia University s Introduction to Data Science class, tells you what you need to know.

In many of these chapter-long lectures, data scientists from companies such as Google, Microsoft, and eBay share new algorithms, methods, and models by presenting case studies and the code they use. If you re familiar...

Bayesian statistics has exploded into biology and its sub-disciplines, such as ecology, over the past decade. The free software program WinBUGS, and its open-source sister OpenBugs, is currently the only flexible and general-purpose program available with which the average ecologist can conduct standard and non-standard Bayesian statistics.

• Comprehensive and richly commented examples illustrate a wide range of models that are most relevant to the research of a modern population ecologist
• All WinBUGS/OpenBUGS analyses are completely integrated in software...

Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.

In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist...

Flexible Models to Analyze Opponent Behavior

A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against intelligent adversaries. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations.

The book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their...

Mathematics in Games, Sports, and Gambling: The Games People Play, Second Edition demonstrates how discrete probability, statistics, and elementary discrete mathematics are used in games, sports, and gambling situations. With emphasis on mathematical thinking and problem solving, the text draws on numerous examples, questions, and problems to explain the application of mathematical theory to various real-life games.
This updated edition of a widely adopted textbook considers a number of popular games and diversions that are mathematically based or can be studied from a...

A one-of-a-kind guide to identifying and dealing with modern statistical developments in causality

Written by a group of well-known experts, "Statistics and Causality: Methods for Applied Empirical Research" focuses on the most up-to-date developments in statistical methods in respect to causality. Illustrating the properties of statistical methods to theories of causality, the book features a summary of the latest developments in methods for statistical analysis of causality hypotheses.

The book is divided into five accessible and independent parts. The first part introduces the...