As economies become more open to international trade, also the transmission and propagation of economic fluctuations increases. In particular small and open economies are strongly exposed to fluctuations in the global business cycle. Hence, the cyclical dynamics of international trade have implications in macroeconomic forecasting and international politics. The analysis on income and growth shows that global trade is an important factor for sustainable development. This was the motivation to find an econometric model that is capable to track the growth path of world trade. Several univariate...