Commodity futures prices are widely used as a tool for forecasting and predicting future commodity spot prices. Indeed, commodity futures prices do have certain forecasting power. However, their explanation power is strongly limited. In particular, this thesis tests whether WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices can forecast future spot prices accurately. Based on economic theory and two conflicting research views, we apply an OLS regression in order to show the empirical poorness of WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices as forecasting agents of future spot prices. In addition, we reject the...
Commodity futures prices are widely used as a tool for forecasting and predicting future commodity spot prices. Indeed, commodity futures prices do ha...