Every decision has consequences. We make a decision and expect a certain outcome. Sometimes this expectation is explicit and very clear. And sometimes this outcome is implied but expected. Any decision without a forecast of its outcome can be disastrous. Either a personal, business, or organizational decision needs to be evaluated in full context. Unfortunately this is not always the case. The most important forecasts are for when things change, and past data by itself can lead to entirely incorrect forecasts. In the case of a new innovation, there is no past data, and frustrated statistical...