How to quantify risks in the absence of historical data or time series? This book develops a methodology to quantify expert opinion on risk factors which have significant impact on cash flow projections in life-cycle infrastructure projects. It applies fuzzy set theory, stochastic simulation, and robust statistics to formalize the "QQIR-Method," which bridges the gap between qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods. The QQIR-Method is then applied to political risks in infrastructure projects in Asia. The book contains a number of case studies and survey interviews with tier-1...
How to quantify risks in the absence of historical data or time series? This book develops a methodology to quantify expert opinion on risk factors wh...