This report presents the results of analysis and characterization of uncertainty in traffic demand predictions using Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) data and probabilistic representation of the predictions. Our previous research, described in two prior reports, was focused on analysis of aggregate 15-minute traffic demand predictions in ETMS, on improving the accuracy of these predictions and increasing the stability of the ETMS monitor/alert function, while not explicitly considering the uncertainty in predictions of flight events for individual flights. This study continues the...

The purpose of this research is to examine the accuracy of predicted ETMS airport and sector counts, and to attempt to develop better prediction algorithms. The remainder of this report is in six sections. Section 1 Quality of Current Predictions Discussion of the accuracy of current flight predictions for a given location and 15-minute time interval. Section 2 New Models for Predicting the Number of Flights The development and calibration of new models for predicting the number of flights in a 15-minute time interval. Section 3 Testing Model 2 Discussion of the testing of one promising new...