Traditional strategy assumes stability and predictability. Today's world is better characterised by turbulence, uncertainty, novelty and ambiguity - conditions that contribute disruptive changes and trigger the search for new ways of coping.
This book aims to become the premier guide on how to do scenario planning to support strategy and public policy. Co-authored by three experts in the field, the book presents The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA). The approach is both intellectually rigorous and practical. Methodological choices and theoretical aspects in practice are detailed...

In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or "scenarios," Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the present--an assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the company's innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and...

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Tay-Tay loved white-powdered donuts. One day, while he was playing in the house, he decided to eat one against his mother's wishes. He made sure neither parent could see him get the donut. Sneaking the donut was his little secret, and he thought they would never find out. But somehow his father knew he had eaten a donut. How could he have known?

Read to find out how his little secret was brought to light and discover the important lesson Tay-Tay learned.

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This bookprovides clear information and guidance on how to do scenario planning to support strategy and public policy. The book describes the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA), an intellectually rigorous and practical methodolgy.