We may look up to our favorite sports heroes as gods: powerful, athletic, and able to do no wrong. Yet their fate is in the hands of decision makers who are far from perfect.

Nowhere is this truer than in the storied world of college football. One team rises while another falls, not always in proportion to the players' talent-or where their college is located. A place like Tuscaloosa, Alabama, can rise to prominence while Houston falls behind. A tactical mistake can haunt a team for decades, while a chance occurrence, even one that looks like a setback, can provide a surprising...