It's supposed to look like a hockey stick: up and to the right. Growth curves of runaway hits are even more dramatic-akin to field hockey sticks-quick start, short dip, followed by an immediate near-vertical climb in a northeasterly direction. It's a beautiful thing. The problem with growth curves is that they're like footprints in the sand. You can only see them in hindsight. To make matters more difficult, innovation is a non-linear business. Success does not come in the form of a straight line. As Woody Allen suggests, "If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans." In the...