Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity, and disability in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies for health and welfare programs. This volume presents a wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of health of elderly populations, including the modelling of the incidence of chronic diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new technologies on the elderly population. Amongst the topics covered are - uncertainties in projections from census and social security data and...

Multiple complex pathways, characterized by interrelated events and c- ditions, represent routes to many illnesses, diseases, and ultimately death. Although there are substantial data and plausibility arguments suppo- ing many conditions as contributory components of pathways to illness and disease end points, we have, historically, lacked an e?ective method- ogy for identifying the structure of the full pathways. Regression methods, with strong linearity assumptions and data-basedconstraints onthe extent and order of interaction terms, have traditionally been the strategies of choice for...