From childhood, each of us develops our own personal set of theories and beliefs about the world in which we live. Given the impossibility of knowing about every event that can ever take place, we use cognitive short cuts to try to predict and make sense of the world around us. One of the fundamental pieces of information we use to predict future events, and make sense of past events, is frequency - how often has such an event happened to us, or how often have we observed a particular event? With such information we will make inferences about the likelihood of its future appearance. We will...
From childhood, each of us develops our own personal set of theories and beliefs about the world in which we live. Given the impossibility of knowing ...
Describes an approach to understanding, modelling and improving the probabilistic reasoning of ordinary adults, comparing their reasoning to that of experts. The book should be of interest to specialists in judgement and decision making, and all cognitive scientists.
Describes an approach to understanding, modelling and improving the probabilistic reasoning of ordinary adults, comparing their reasoning to that of e...
