This book is a layperson's introduction to the mathematics of chance but with just a little of the math. The idea is to help the reader untangle the plethora of often misleading data and sometimes dubious claims that appear in the world of politics, finance, medicine and public health, sports, criminal trials, and the like. It is relevant to current events with many quotes from newspaper articles. This is not a textbook, and no special requirements are assumed on the part of the reader other than an interest in public affairs, curiosity about how to interpret the many statements that he or...