This work is a detailed description of the use of Box Jenkins time-series analysis techniques--including autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling--to test two hypotheses relating economic conditions to presidential popularity. . . . Lanoue's model shows the two hypotheses to be interrelated. Rising inflation rates have a negative effect on presidential popularity; falling inflation rates have no impact. These negative impacts are present only for Democratic administrations. Recession--as measured by declining real disposable income--leads to a decline in presidential...
This work is a detailed description of the use of Box Jenkins time-series analysis techniques--including autoregressive-integrated moving average (...
Lanoue and Schrott study the content of presidential debates, emphasize the importance of reinforcement as an electorally significant phenomenon, and propose a model of debate effects that takes into consideration both direct and indirect paths between debate watching and attitude change.
Lanoue and Schrott study the content of presidential debates, emphasize the importance of reinforcement as an electorally significant phenomenon, and ...
