Taking a sequential approach to time-series model building, this easy-to-use and widely applicable book explores how to test for stationarity, normality, independence, linearity, model order, and properties of the residual process. The authors clearly define each testing procedure and offer examples to illustrate each concept. They also offer sound advice on how to perform the tests using different software packages.

Which time series test should researchers choose to best describe the interactions among a set of time series variables? Providing guidelines for identifying the appropriate multivariate time series model to use, this book explores the nature and application of these increasingly complex tests. In addition, it covers such topics as: joint stationarity; testing for cointegration; testing for causality; and model order and forecast accuracy. Related models explained include transfer function, vector autoregression and error correction models.

This book provides a framework for analyzing and forecasting a variety of mineral and energy markets and related industries. Such modeling activity has been at the forefront of the economic and engineering professions for some time, having received a major stimulus fC?llowing the first oil price shock in 1973. Since that time, other shocks have affected these markets and industries, causing disequilibrium economic adjustments which are difficult to analyze and to predict. Moreover, geopolitics remains an important factor which can destabilize crude oil markets and associated refining...

Part of a series, this volume comprises a selection of methodology-oriented papers presented at the 25th International Conference of the Applied Econometrics Association on International Commodity Market Modelling which took place at the World Bank, Washington, 1988.

This book provides a framework for analyzing and forecasting a variety of mineral and energy markets and related industries. Such modeling activity has been at the forefront of the economic and engineering professions for some time, having received a major stimulus fC?llowing the first oil price shock in 1973. Since that time, other shocks have affected these markets and industries, causing disequilibrium economic adjustments which are difficult to analyze and to predict. Moreover, geopolitics remains an important factor which can destabilize crude oil markets and associated refining...

RONALD C. DUNCAN During the 1980s, substantial advances were made in the global modelling of commodity markets in several areas, advances which were reflected in many of the papers delivered to the Applied Econometrics Association meeting held at the World Bank in Washington, DC, in October 1988. The several areas where I see advances being made, some of which the International Commodity Markets Division of the World Bank has taken part in, are the following: (a) in the theoretical specification of commodity price behaviour; (b) in the increased emphasis on modelling imperfect markets; (c) in...