All people wish to avoid nuclear war, but this fact provides little guidance for policy. One reason is a lack of understanding of how a nuclear war might come about or how one could be prevented; much of what is offered as expert knowledge cannot be defended as more than educated opinion. Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War assesses current knowledge to create a basis for new intellectual approaches to the subject of international security that are conceptually rigorous, theoretically eclectic, and methodologically self-conscious. Leading scholars review specific behavioral and social...
All people wish to avoid nuclear war, but this fact provides little guidance for policy. One reason is a lack of understanding of how a nuclear war mi...
In the last year the world has witnessed changes in East-West relations that would have been unthinkable only a short time ago. The Berlin Wall has crumbled, Eastern Europe has thrown out its authoritarian leaders, and the Soviet Union itself has undergone dramatic changes in political structure and foreign policy. The U.S. public no longer regards the Eastern Bloc as the principal threat to national security. Yet even with the undeniable thaw in the Cold War many of the old scenarios for "World War III" remain as plausible as they were in the past, and new sources of instability could arise...
In the last year the world has witnessed changes in East-West relations that would have been unthinkable only a short time ago. The Berlin Wall has cr...
Paul M. Sniderman Philip E. Tetlock Peter H. Russell
Why do citizens in pluralist democracies disagree collectively about the very values they agree on individually? This provocative book highlights the inescapable conflicts of rights and values at the heart of democratic politics. Based on interviews with thousands of citizens and political decision makers, the book focuses on modern Canadian politics, investigating why a country so fortunate in its history and circumstances is on the brink of dissolution. Taking advantage of new techniques of computer-assisted interviewing, the authors explore the politics of a wide array of issues, from...
Why do citizens in pluralist democracies disagree collectively about the very values they agree on individually? This provocative book highlights the ...
Drawing on a multitude of data sets and building on analyses carried out over more than a decade, Reasoning and Choice offers a major new theoretical explanation of how ordinary citizens figure out what they favor and oppose politically. Reacting against the conventional wisdom, which stresses how little attention the general public pays to political issues and the lack of consistency in their political opinions, the studies presented in this book redirect attention to the processes of reasoning that can be discerned when people are confronted with choices about political issues. These...
Drawing on a multitude of data sets and building on analyses carried out over more than a decade, Reasoning and Choice offers a major new theoretical ...
Drawing on a multitude of data sets and building on analyses carried out over more than a decade, Reasoning and Choice offers a major new theoretical explanation of how ordinary citizens figure out what they favor and oppose politically. Reacting against the conventional wisdom, which stresses how little attention the general public pays to political issues and the lack of consistency in their political opinions, the studies presented in this book redirect attention to the processes of reasoning that can be discerned when people are confronted with choices about political issues. These...
Drawing on a multitude of data sets and building on analyses carried out over more than a decade, Reasoning and Choice offers a major new theoretical ...
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps...
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secr...
Paul M. Sniderman Edward G. Carmines Philip E. Tetlock
It has been half a century since the publication of An American Dilemma, Gunnar Myrdal's seminal work on race in America. The cleavage between the politics of race of the 1940s and the 1990s is that race has become a greater dilemma than ever before. This book is an attempt to contribute to a fresh understanding of prejudice, politics, and the American dilemma. It presents new lines of questions by deliberately inter-weaving two perspectives, the first taking up issues of race focusing on whites, the second on blacks. The contributors are drawn from several disciplines in the social sciences,...
It has been half a century since the publication of An American Dilemma, Gunnar Myrdal's seminal work on race in America. The cleavage between the pol...
A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." --Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only...
A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision ma...
