How realistic is peace in the Middle East? Certainly there appears to be a reduction in conflict, and concrete improvements are clearly visible: the Gulf War opened the door to regional realignments that paved the way for the PLO-Israel peace agreement, which in turn made peace negotiations possible between Israel and Syria; Lebanon is rebuilding its cities following a cessation of its civil war; Iran has evidenced signs of a rapprochement with the West.

Yet some analysts predict that these changes are doomed to failure. With its longstanding territorial disputes and pronounced...