This book provides an introduction to econometrics through a thorough grounding in probability theory and statistical inference. The emphasis is on the concepts and ideas underlying probability theory and statistical inference, and on motivating the learning of them both at a formal and an intuitive level. By basing its approach on the underlying theory, it is able to cover fully the econometric theory required up to the intermediate level; its emphasis on mastering the concepts makes it an ideal introduction to the advanced texts and the econometric literature.

David Hendry is one of the world's leading econometricians, and in this major new work he and Michael Clements provide an extended formal analysis of economic forecasting with econometric models: their analysis builds in many of the features of the real world that are often overlooked in traditional, textbook analyses of forecasting. Consequently, Clements and Hendry are able to suggest ways in which existing forecasting practices can be improved, as well as providing a rationale for some of the habitual practices of forecasters that have hitherto lacked a scientific foundation.

David Hendry is one of the world's leading econometricians, and in this major new work he and Michael Clements provide an extended formal analysis of economic forecasting with econometric models: their analysis builds in many of the features of the real world that are often overlooked in traditional, textbook analyses of forecasting. Consequently, Clements and Hendry are able to suggest ways in which existing forecasting practices can be improved, as well as providing a rationale for some of the habitual practices of forecasters that have hitherto lacked a scientific foundation.