Bayesian methods in reliability cannot be fully utilized and understood without full comprehension of the essential differences that exist between frequentist probability and subjective probability. Switching from the frequentist to the subjective approach requires some fundamental concepts be re-thought and suitably refined. This text details those differences and clarifies aspects of subjective probability that have a direct influence on modelling and drawing inference from failure and survival data. Topics include exchangeability and subjective probability, dependence and ageing...

Exactly what is the state of the art in statistics as we move forward into the 21st century? What promises, what trends does its future hold? Through the reflections of 70 of the world's leading statistical methodologists, researchers, theorists, and practitioners, Statistics in the 21st Century answers those questions.
Originally published in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, this collection of vignettes examines our statistical past, comments on our present, and speculates on our future. Although the coverage is broad and the topics diverse, it reveals the essential...

Identifying the sources and measuring the impact of haphazard variations are important in any number of research applications, from clinical trials and genetics to industrial design and psychometric testing. Only in very simple situations can such variations be represented effectively by independent, identically distributed random variables or by random sampling from a hypothetical infinite population.Components of Variance illuminates the complexities of the subject, setting forth its principles with focus on both the development of models for detailed analyses and the statistical techniques...

It is not so very long ago that up-to-date text-books on statistics were almost non-existent. In the last few decades this deficiency has largely been remedied, but in order to cope with a broad and rapidly expanding subject many of these books have been fairly big and expensive. The success of Methuen's existing series of monographs, in physics or in biology, for example, stresses the value of short inexpensive treatments to which a student can turn for an introduc- tion to, or a revision of, specialised topics. In this new Methuen series the still-growing importance of prob- ability theory...

Some years ago when I. assembled a number of general articles and lectures on probability and statistics, their publication (Essays in Probability and Statistics, Methuen, London, 1962) received a some- what better reception than I had been led to expect of such a miscellany. I am consequently tempted to risk publishing this second collection, the title I have given it (taken from the first lecture) seeming to me to indicate a coherence in my articles which my publishers might otherwise be inclined to query. As in the first collection, the articles are reprinted chronologically, usually...