Climate Technology Strategies 1: Controlling Greenhouse Gases. Policy and Technology Options

ISBN-13: 9783790812299 / Angielski / Miękka / 1999 / 365 str.

Pantelis Capros;Leonidas Mantzos;Patrick Criqui

Opis

The book provides an integrated analysis of the implications for the energy system from adapting to meet climate change targets and analyses the role of improving energy technologies for the world and the EU markets. The first part of the book sets the stage for the analysis by presenting the European and World economic and energy outlook. The second part examines the policy options available for controlling greenhouse gases in the period to 2010. Over such a relatively short period, the role of technology lies mostly in making possible the more efficient use of energy. Finally, the third part of the volume examines the longer term role of technology in the context of a case study for the power generation sector.

Spis treści

I: Global and European Energy and Emissions Outlook.- 1 Introduction.- 1.1 Objectives.- 1.2 Models Used.- 1.3 Uncertainties.- 1.4 Plan of the Volume.- 2 Global Outlook.- 2.1 Economic Outlook.- 2.1.1 Economic and Population Trends.- 2.1.2 Economic Projections: the GDP Dynamics.- 2.1.3 Changes in per Capita GDP Profiles.- 2.2 Energy Outlook.- 2.2.1 Energy Resources and Prices.- 2.2.2 World Primary Energy Consumption.- 2.2.3 Energy Balances by Main Regions.- 2.3 Co2Emissions Outlook.- 2.3.1 Trends in Carbon Emissions.- 2.4 Comparisons of Projections of the World Energy System to 2030: Similarities and Differences.- 2.5 Conclusions.- 3 European Outlook.- 3.1 The Baseline Scenario: The European Economy to 2030.- 3.1.1 Introduction.- 3.1.2 Short Run Projections: 1995–2000.- 3.1.3 Long Run Projections: 2001–2030.- 3.1.4 Energy and Emissions Outlook.- II: Meeting The Kyoto Targets:The Role of Policy.- 4 Introduction.- 5 European Policies for Meeting the Kyoto Targets.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 Scenario Assumptions.- 5.2.1 The KATREN Scenario.- 5.2.2 The CO2Tax Scenario.- 5.3 Katren Scenario Results.- 5.3.1 Overview.- 5.3.2 Primary Energy Demand.- 5.3.3 Power and Heat Generation.- 5.3.4 Final Energy Demand.- 5.3.5 CO2Emissions.- 5.4 The Co2tax Scenario.- 5.4.1 Overview.- 5.4.2 Primary Energy Demand.- 5.4.3 Power and Heat Generation.- 5.4.4 Final Energy Demand.- 5.4.5 CO2Emissions.- 5.5 Comparison of ScenarioS.- 5.6 Extrapolation to Eu-15.- 5.7 Evaluation of Costs.- 5.7.1 Definitions and Assumptions.- 5.8 Average Cost Computations.- 5.8.1 Model’s Discount Rate.- 5.8.2 At 8% Discount Rate.- 5.9 Marginal Cost Computations.- 5.10 Other Economic Effects.- 6 International Dimensions.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.1.1 Limits and Interest of a Sectoral Approach to the Evaluation of the Reduction Strategies.- 6.1.2 Effect of a Shadow Carbon Tax and Analysis of Reduction Potential According to Region.- 6.2 Conclusion.- III: Controlling Emissions in The Longer Run:The Role of Technology.- 7 Introduction to Part III.- 8 Power Generation Technology Clusters:Present Status and Its Potential.- 8.1 Nuclear Industry: A Paradigm in Crisis.- 8.1.1 Incremental Innovation in Nuclear Development.- 8.1.2 Renewed Technology Push? The Heritage of Advanced Reactor Programmes.- 8.1.3 Concerns with the Social Acceptability of Nuclear Power.- 8.1.4 Clean Coal Technologies.- 8.1.5 Fuel Cells for Stationary and Mobile Applications.- 8.1.6 Drawbacks to Diffusion.- 8.1.7 Wind Power Generation.- 8.1.8 Photovoltaic Electricity.- 8.1.9 PV Cell Producers.- 9 Technology Scenarios to 2030: Baseline and Alternative Technology Scenarios.- 9..- 9.1.1 Energy Technology Baseline Projection.- 9.1.2 World Energy Technology Scenarios.- 9.1.3 Technical Note: Running the Scenarios.- 9.2 Summary of Assumptions.- 10 Scenario Impacts on World Energy and Emissions.- 10.1 Baseline Electricity Trends.- 10.1.1 The Nuclear Scenario.- 10.1.2 The Clean Coal Scenario.- 10.1.3 The Gas Technology Scenario.- 10.1.4 The Fuel Cell Scenario.- 10.1.5 The Renewable Energy Technology Scenario.- 10.2 Conclusion.- 11 Technology Stories With Primes2 for the European Union; An Analysis For Demand Side, Power and Steam Generation Sector.- 11.1 Introduction.- 11.2 Definition of Technology Progress Stories.- 11.3 The Baseline Scenario.- 11.3.1 World Energy Prices.- 11.3.2 The Baseline Scenario.- 11.4 The Supply Side Stories.- 11.4.1 The Nuclear Story.- 11.4.2 The Clean Coal Story.- 11.4.3 The Gas Story.- 11.4.4 The Fuel Cells Story.- 11.4.5 The Renewable Story.- 11.4.6 The Pessimistic Supply Side Story.- 11.5 The Demand Side Story.- 11.5.1 Effects from Demand Side Progress.- 11.5.2 Effects from Combining Demand and Supply Progress.- 11.6 Concluding Remarks.- 12 Issues for Eu R&D Strategy.- 12.1 Medium Term Issues: Faster Adoption Of Improved Technologies.- 12.2 Long Term Issues: Need For More R&D.- 13 Carbon Removal, Fuel Cycle Shift and Efficiency Measures: A Sectoral View.- 13.1 Carbon Removal and Sequestration.- 13.2 Separation and Recovery Processes.- 13.2.1 CO2Disposal and Storage Processes.- 13.2.2 Costs and Potentials of Carbon Sequestration, Removal, and Storage.- 13.3 Other Reduction Options.- 13.3.1 Demand Side Measures.- 13.3.2 Dematerialization and Recycling.- 13.3.3 Efficiency Improvements and Technological Change.- 13.3.4 Fuel Mix Changes.- 13.3.5 Removal and Sequestration.- 13.3.6 Energy Conversion Efficiency.- 13.3.7 Fuel Mix Changes.- 13.4 The Industrial Sector.- 13.4.1 Dematerialization.- 13.4.2 Energy Efficiency Improvement and Process Changes.- 13.4.3 Fuel Mix Changes.- 13.4.4 Combined Measures in the Steel Industry.- 13.5 The Transportation Sector.- 13.5.1 Efficiency Improvements.- 13.5.2 Demand Side Measures.- 13.5.3 Fuel Switching.- 13.6 The Residential & Commercial Sector.- 13.6.1 Efficiency Improvements.- 13.6.2 Fuel Mix Changes.- 14 Appendix I: Detailed Macroeconomic and Sectoral Projections.- 15 Appendix II: Brief Description Of Models Used in the Study.- 15.1 The Primes Model.- 15.1.1 Introduction.- 15.1.2 Scope and Objectives.- 15.1.3 PRIMES Model Design.- 15.1.4 The PRIMES Modules.- 15.1.5 The Industrial Demand Model.- 15.1.6 The Households Sub Model.- 15.1.7 The Tertiary Sector Sub Model.- 15.1.8 The Power and Steam Generation Sub Model of PRIMES.- 15.1.9 The Oil Refinery Model of PRIMES.- 15.1.10 The Transport Model.- 15.1.11 Primary Energy Supply, Transformations and Pricing Sub Model.- 15.1.12 Global Environmental Constraints and Pollution Permits Market.- 15.1.13 General Structure of the Demand Side Sub Models.- 15.1.14 Industrial Sector.- 15.1.15 Tertiary Sector.- 15.1.16 Residential Sector.- 15.1.17 Transport Sector.- 15.2 The Poles Model.- 15.2.1 Main Characteristics of the POLES Model.- 15.2.2 Structure of the Model.- 15.2.3 Simulation of Primary Energy Consumption.- 15.2.4 Development and Production of Fossil Fuels.- 15.2.5 International Energy Prices and Trade.- List of Figures.- List of Tables.- References.